Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction for Tuesday September 22 2026

The Toronto Blue Jays visit the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland, on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Toronto enters at 77-79 overall and 37-41 on the road, while Baltimore is 75-81 overall and 36-42 at home. The Blue Jays have won two of their last five games and are coming off a 7-2 victory at Texas, while the Orioles have dropped three straight after being swept at home by Milwaukee. Toronto also holds a 6-4 advantage in the season series entering Monday's game between the clubs. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Toronto is scheduled to start Max Scherzer, who enters at 3-8 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.36 WHIP through 72.2 innings. He has allowed 68 hits and 14 home runs while recording 54 strikeouts against 31 walks. Baltimore counters with Chris Bassitt, who is 8-5 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.55 WHIP across 97 innings. He has surrendered 113 hits and 10 home runs while striking out 72 and walking 37. Neither starter enters with particularly strong run-prevention numbers, but Baltimore has the statistical advantage in ERA while Toronto owns the better WHIP. Toronto's starter has been more vulnerable to the home run, while Baltimore's starter has allowed considerably more hits per inning.

Blue Jays Search for Consistency After a Road Win

Toronto enters Tuesday at 77-79 and is trying to build some momentum after beating Texas 7-2 on Sunday. The Blue Jays went 1-2 in that three-game road series, losing 7-1 and 6-2 before responding in the finale. Toronto is 2-3 over its last five completed games, with its other victory coming 5-1 against Detroit. The Blue Jays scored 16 runs while allowing 26 during that five-game stretch, illustrating the inconsistency that has kept them below .500 late in the season.

Toronto is batting .248 with 629 runs, 1,305 hits and 149 home runs. The Blue Jays have a .311 on-base percentage and .383 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 3.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .236 batting average. Toronto pitchers have recorded 1,355 strikeouts against 579 walks.

The Blue Jays' most significant statistical advantage is their ability to produce more hits while preventing them more effectively than Baltimore. Toronto owns the better batting average, team ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average. The weakness is power production, where the Blue Jays have hit 40 fewer home runs than the Orioles. With a starting pitcher carrying a 6.07 ERA, Toronto cannot afford to rely entirely on its season-long pitching advantage and may need its offense to provide early support.

Orioles Try to Stop a Three-Game Slide

Baltimore enters at 75-81 and has lost three consecutive games following a difficult home series against Milwaukee. The Orioles lost 6-5 in 10 innings on Friday before being shut out 1-0 and 3-0 over the next two games. Those results followed consecutive road victories over the Mets, leaving Baltimore 2-3 across its last five completed contests. The Orioles scored 19 runs and allowed 16 during those five games, although 14 of those runs came in the two victories.

Baltimore is hitting .234 with 693 runs, 1,218 hits and 189 home runs. The Orioles own a .314 on-base percentage and .394 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, Baltimore carries a 4.12 ERA and 1.34 WHIP while opponents are batting .253. The staff has issued 522 walks and recorded 1,264 strikeouts.

Baltimore's primary advantage is its power. The Orioles have hit 189 home runs compared with Toronto's 149 and have scored 64 more runs over the course of the season. That power becomes particularly relevant against a Toronto starter who has surrendered 14 home runs in only 72.2 innings. The concern is Baltimore's recent offensive disappearance. The Orioles failed to score in either of their final two games against Milwaukee, so their ability to capitalize on a favorable starting-pitching matchup becomes the key question Tuesday night.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction

Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline

Toronto owns the better overall record and several stronger season-long pitching numbers, but the starting matchup pushes me toward Baltimore. The Orioles counter Toronto's 6.07 ERA starter with one carrying a 4.64 ERA, and Baltimore's lineup has produced considerably more home-run power this season. Toronto's starter has also allowed 14 home runs in just 72.2 innings, which creates a potentially important matchup advantage for an Orioles offense with 189 homers. Baltimore's recent scoring struggles make the run line too aggressive, but the Orioles are the preferred moneyline side.

Pick: Over 8.5 or Lower

Unlike the Tampa Bay-New York opener, this matchup features two starters with elevated ERAs and WHIPs. Toronto's scheduled starter owns a 6.07 ERA, while Baltimore's enters at 4.64 with a 1.55 WHIP and 113 hits allowed in 97 innings. Baltimore has the power to exploit Toronto's home-run vulnerability, while the Blue Jays are facing a starter who has allowed plenty of baserunners. The Orioles' recent offensive slump adds some risk, but at 8.5 or lower, the starting-pitching profiles make the over the stronger position.

Final Picks: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline and Over 8.5 or Lower

This preview was completed on Monday, September 21, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.