Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Picks and Prediction for July 24, 2026

The Toronto Blue Jays visit the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts, on July 24, 2026. The game is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. and will be televised on MLB.TV and Apple TV. Toronto enters the matchup with a 46-56 overall record and a 21-26 record on the road, while Boston is 52-49 overall and 23-28 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Blue Jays a 47.9% chance of winning and the Red Sox a 52.1% chance. The listed game-time temperature is 77 degrees. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers

Trey Yesavage is scheduled to start for Toronto against Boston left-hander Patrick Sandoval. Yesavage enters with a 4-5 record, a 3.78 ERA, and a 1.16 WHIP across 81 innings. He has allowed 53 hits and eight home runs while recording 78 strikeouts and issuing 41 walks. Sandoval is 0-0 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP through 9.1 innings. He has surrendered 14 hits and one home run while collecting 10 strikeouts and allowing two walks. Yesavage holds the lower ERA and WHIP, although Sandoval has worked a much smaller number of innings. The Toronto starter has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched, while the Boston starter has surrendered 14 hits through 9.1 innings.

Toronto Tries to End Its Four-Game Slide on the Road

Toronto enters Friday’s matchup with a 46-56 overall record and a 21-26 mark away from home. The Blue Jays have lost four consecutive games, including three straight defeats against Tampa Bay by scores of 4-2, 12-2, and 7-1. Toronto also recently suffered a 3-0 loss against Chicago. Its only victory in the last five games was a 1-0 result against Chicago. The Blue Jays have scored only six runs during this five-game stretch and have been held to two runs or fewer in every contest.

The Blue Jays have recorded a .241 batting average, a .302 on-base percentage, and a .378 slugging percentage. They have accumulated 822 hits, scored 402 runs, and hit 102 home runs. Toronto’s pitching staff enters with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing opposing hitters to bat .243. The staff has collected 904 strikeouts and issued 361 walks. Toronto has also compiled a 20-24 record in day games, although Friday’s contest is scheduled for the evening.

Toronto’s clearest statistical advantage is its home-run production, as the Blue Jays have hit six more home runs than Boston. They have also recorded one fewer hit despite playing one additional game, leaving the teams nearly even in that category. The scheduled pitching matchup also gives Toronto the lower starting ERA and WHIP. However, the Blue Jays trail Boston in batting average, runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, team ERA, team WHIP, walks, and opponent batting average. Their recent offensive results create another concern entering the series opener.

Boston Looks to Build on Its Recent Run at Fenway Park

Boston brings a 52-49 overall record and a 23-28 home mark into Friday’s matchup. The Red Sox have won four of their last five games, including victories over Baltimore by scores of 6-3 and 6-5. Boston also recently defeated Tampa Bay 6-1 and 7-6. Its only loss during that five-game period was a 5-1 setback against Baltimore. The Red Sox scored at least six runs in each of their four victories and totaled 26 runs across those wins.

The Red Sox own a .244 batting average, a .314 on-base percentage, and a .393 slugging percentage. They have collected 823 hits, scored 426 runs, and hit 96 home runs. Boston’s pitching staff enters with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .238 batting average. The staff has recorded 857 strikeouts and issued 291 walks. Boston has also posted a 19-23 record in day games, though this game is scheduled for 7:10 p.m.

Boston’s strongest advantage is the combination of its recent offensive production and season-long pitching numbers. The Red Sox have scored 24 more runs than Toronto while holding advantages of 12 points in on-base percentage and 15 points in slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns an ERA that is 0.62 lower and a WHIP that is 0.10 better. Boston has also issued 70 fewer walks and held opposing hitters to a batting average five points lower. The Red Sox have a losing home record, but Toronto’s road record is also below .500.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Picks and Prediction

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Pick

• Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline

Boston is my side selection based on its recent form, stronger offensive numbers, better overall pitching profile, and advantage in the matchup predictor. The Red Sox have won four of their last five games while scoring six or more runs in every victory. Toronto has lost four straight and has managed only six total runs across its last five contests. Boston also holds the lower team ERA and WHIP while leading in batting average, runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Toronto has the better starting-pitcher statistics, but the broader comparison favors the Red Sox.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Total Pick

• Pick: Under 8.5

Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. Toronto has scored two runs or fewer in each of its last five games, and four of those contests ended with seven combined runs or fewer. The Blue Jays’ scheduled starter enters with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, while Boston’s pitching staff owns a 3.56 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Boston has shown considerably more offensive production recently, but Toronto’s extended scoring difficulties make the under my preferred total.

Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox 5 – Toronto Blue Jays 2

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.