Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Pick and Prediction September 20th, 2025
Toronto will look to hold off the Yankees for the AL East title as they face the Kansas City Royals on Saturday at 7:10 p.m. EST in Kauffman Stadium. Check out our Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals pick and prediction here!
Toronto is ahead by three games over the Yankees for first place in the division with an 89-64 record. With less than ten games to go in the regular season, all Toronto has to do is win about five games and they should have a division crown. They are 7-3 in their last ten but have dropped their last two in a row. Meanwhile, the Royals have a 76-77 record overall and are all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. They will look to play the spoiler here, but they are 3-7 in their last ten. Toronto is favored at a -145 money line while the total is set at an even eight runs. Can the Royals earn an upset win at home here?
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Toronto on Top
The Blue Jays lost to the Rays by a score of 4-0 in their latest outing. Nathan Lukes was the only one to reach base more than once on the day for the Blue Jays. Nobody had more than one hit and only two walks were recorded for Toronto. Chris Bassitt went only 4.1 innings as the starter and gave up three runs on eight hits.
Toronto addressed a couple of key pieces of improvement, acquiring Seranthony Dominguez from the Orioles in exchange for Juaron Watts-Brown, while also receiving Ty France and Louis Varland from the Twins for Alan Roden and Kendry Rojas. Toronto was not finished, though. The Blue Jays also received Brandon Valenzuela for Will Wagner and Shane Bieber for Khal Stephen. Bieber is an intriguing low-risk, high-reward option and Dominguez is a potentially solid bullpen option for October.
Shane Bieber will get the ball as the starter for Toronto in this one. Overall, the righty has a 3-1 record with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 2025. To be fair, he has had only five starts and thrown for 29 innings. However, he has 30 strikeouts during that span. His season started in late August with a 2.38 ERA. He has since regressed in September with a 4.58 ERA, but these next couple of starts will hopefully serve as a confidence booster for the playoffs. Bo Bichette highlights the list of eight players listed on the IL, but he is only on the ten-day IL. The rest of the players are on the sixty-day IL.
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Kansas City Can't Comeback
The Royals fell to the Mariners by a score of 2-0 in their most recent contest, all but putting the nail in the coffin for their playoff hopes. Kansas City managed only five hits, and nobody had more than one hit in the effort. Nobody managed to get a walk either on offense. Stephen Kolek had a tremendous start though with only one earned run surrendered on two hits in 7.1 innings, striking out eight and walking one.
Kansas City was not the headline destination for any key players at the deadline, but they did shake up the roster ever so slightly. Julio E. Rodriguez was acquired from Seattle (not the one you're thinking of) for cash. Randal Grichuk was then acquired from Arizona for Andrew Hoffman. Later on, Freddy Fermin was sent to San Diego for Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. Pittsburgh traded Bailey Falter to Kansas City for Callan Moss and Evan Sisk as well. The Royals also got long-time Giant Mike Yastrzemski for Yunior Marte to close things up.
Noah Cameron will be the starter for Kansas City here. The 26-year-old lefty is 8-7 on the year with a 2.98 ERA across 22 starts. He has thrown 127 innings with 103 strikeouts and a 1.09 WHIP. While Cameron started strong with a 1.40 ERA across May, he regressed a bit in June with a 4.50 ERA before recovering with a 1.84 ERA in July. He struggled a bit again in August with a 4.33 ERA and he came back to his usual form during this month, as he is currently at a 3.32 ERA through September. Seth Lugo and Kris Bubic are the main players to be on the IL for the Royals. Bubic is one of three players on the sixty-day IL, and Lugo is one of five players on the fifteen-day IL.
Blue Jays vs Royals Pick
Money Line Pick for Blue Jays vs Royals
- Blue Jays (4 units)
Interestingly, Kansas City has won seven of its last ten against the Blue Jays, but I have more confidence in Toronto here. They have more motivation with a division crown within their sights and the momentum on their side. Kansas City has lost seven of its last ten, and they don't have the offensive prowess that Toronto has. Cameron pitched once against the Blue Jays, and it was arguably one of his worst starts in 2025, with four runs surrendered in 6.1 innings pitched. Shane Bieber has had previous success against the Royals, and he's been the better pitcher across his last five starts.
Over/Under Pick for Blue Jays vs Royals
- Under 8 (4 units)
Both pitchers have had solid years thus far, with both having certain limitations. The Royals are 85-66-2 on the under this year, and considering Toronto has scored two runs or less in three of their last four games, I suspect the under will be hit here. Toronto has hit the under in seven of their last 10 and these two teams are 7-3 on the under in their last ten meetings. Kansas City is averaging less than four runs per game, and they have scored two runs or less in five of their last ten.
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