Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals Prediction and Picks for Sunday, September 21st, 2025
The MLB action continues on Sunday with an American League matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays (89-66) and the Kansas City Royals (78-77), and we’ve got you covered with our Blue Jays vs. Royals prediction. Below I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 2:10 ET from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Blue Jays Sit Atop the A.L. East
The expectations weren’t extremely high for the Toronto Blue Jays this season, mainly because they play in a loaded division with the Red Sox, Yankees, and Orioles. However, the Jays have emerged as the best team in the entire American League. They enter Sunday’s series finale with a record of 89-66, which puts them 2.0 games above the second-place Yankees in the A.L. East and 3.5 games above the Mariners in the entire A.L. You can still find Toronto as high as +800 to win the World Series. The Jays are slumping a bit, as they’ve dropped four straight games.
The current four-game slide includes consecutive losses to the Royals (20-1, 2-1) to start this series. Offense was tough to come by in Saturday’s 2-1 defeat, as the Blue Jays mustered up only four total hits. Dalton Varsho drove in the lone run with a solo shot in the 7th. Shane Bieber (6.1 IP, 2 ER) was saddled with the loss due to a lack of run support.
- Trey Yesavage gets the start for the Blue Jays on Sunday, and the 22-year-old is gearing up to make his second career start.
- The right-hander was dominant in his MLB debut on Monday, tossing 5.0 innings and limiting the Rays to one earned run on three hits and two walks.
- He struck out nine batters and took a no-decision in a 2-1 extra-innings victory.
- Yesavage was Toronto’s first-round pick in the 2024 draft, coming out of East Carolina.
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Royals Nearing Elimination
Meanwhile, the Kansas City Royals are coming off of an ALDS run in 2024, but it appears that the organization will not be making it back to the postseason in 2025. Kansas City (78-77) has some work to do, as they’re now 6.5 games out of the wild card race. The Royals have not been playing great baseball, going just 4-8 in their last 12 games. Kansas City has won both of the opening games of this series with Toronto (20-1, 2-1).
The pitching staff was superb in Saturday’s 2-1 victory over the Blue Jays. Noah Cameron (6.2 IP, 1 ER) earned the win, while Carlos Estevez (1.0 IP, 0 ER) slammed the door in the 9th and picked up his 41st save. The run support came courtesy of a pair of solo home runs from Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino.
- Michael Wacha heads to the bump for the Royals on Sunday, and the 34-year-old is putting together a decent 2025 campaign.
- In 29 starts (161.2 IP), the right-hander has gone 9-12 with a 3.79 ERA (26th) and a 1.22 WHIP (22nd).
- Wacha last pitched on Tuesday against the Mariners, and he got lit up for seven earned runs on nine hits over 2.2 innings.
- He took the loss in a 12-5 defeat.
Blue Jays vs. Royals Pick
Moneyline Pick for Blue Jays vs. Royals
- Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-115) (5 units)
This game is priced in the pick ‘em range (TOR -115, KC -105), and I’d say that’s fair when considering all things. However, I do think it’s best to ride with the Blue Jays to win the game and avoid the sweep.
My biggest concern with the Royals is starting pitcher Michael Wacha. He got drubbed last time out against the Mariners, giving up seven earned runs over just 2.2 innings. This follows a stint on the IL, so I think it’s fair to question how Wacha will rebound. Additionally, the Blue Jays have seen Wacha well, as their current roster is slashing .271/.317/.415 against him over 118 at-bats. I’ll fade the aging veteran and back the A.L.’s best Blue Jays at a pick ‘em price.
Over/Under Pick for Blue Jays vs. Royals
- Under 9.0 (-110) (5 units)
This total is at least 0.5 runs too high, in my opinion. The issue with the Blue Jays during their current 0-4 SU run is the offense. They’re averaging only 0.75 runs per game during the four-game skid! While I have my concerns about Wacha, the Royals do have an excellent bullpen to lean on. Their arm barn is sixth in ERA (3.63) and 12th in WHIP (1.27) this season.
On the flip side, Try Yesavage just diced up the Rays (5.0 IP, 1 ER) in his MLB debut. Now he draws a matchup against a Royals side that’s just 27th in runs per game (3.95) this season. I’m riding with the under while this number sits at an elevated 9.0 runs.
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