Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees, ALDS, Game 3, Prediction and Picks for Tuesday, October 7th, 2025
The ALDS is shifting to the Bronx, and the hosts have their backs to the wall, but we are making sure you don’t with our Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions for Tuesday night. The Jays took a 2-0 series lead with a 13-7 victory on Sunday. Toronto will look to clinch the series with RHP Shane Bieber (4-2, 3.57 ERA) as their starting pitcher. New York turns to LHP Carlos Rodon (18-9, 3.09 ERA) to try and keep the season alive. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 8:08 EST and stay sharp all postseason with all of our Free MLB Picks.
Blue Jays bats burning red hot
The Blue Jays have wasted no time in asserting their dominance over a division rival, taking the first two games of the series by an average of six runs per game. One more win over their A.L. East rival and they’ll find themselves in the ALCS for the first time since 2016.
Toronto’s offense has been the catalyst for the team’s divisional round success. In just two games they accumulated 29 hits, 14 for extra bases, and 23 runs. The team is hitting .392 with five walks and seven strikeouts. Vlad Guerrero rediscovered his power stroke, hitting a home run in each game thus far after going nearly a month without one. The first baseman slugged a grand slam in Sunday’s win and had six RBIs and three runs. Prior to the start of this series, the first baseman had three hits in six postseason games, a number he has matched in each game thus far. Alejandro Kirk and Dalton Varsho have also struck twice with the long ball in this series. Ernie Clement has driven in four runs.
Toronto’s pitching was doing really well until the middle innings of Sunday’s tilt when the bullpen got roughed up a bit. Their two starts had a combined 11 innings and allowed just one earned runs while striking out 14 batters. After four relievers pitched in for 3.1 scoreless innings on Saturday, it took seven bullpen arms to hold on to an outstanding start from rookie Trey Yesavage, who tossed 5.1 no-hit innings. Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland has each appeared in both games, both throw 1.2 scoreless innings.
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Starter spotlight
- Shane Bieber made seven starts since returning from Tommy John surgery and the team has gone 5-2 in those games.
- Did not face the Yankees this season.
- Is 2-1 with a 4.11 ERA in five career starts against New York.
- Teams hit .225 against him with eight home runs and seven walks.
- Went at least five innings in all of his starts this season.
Yankees down to their last strike
At least the offense finally woke up for the Yankees on Sunday, scoring a postseason high seven runs. Unfortunately, it wasn’t nearly enough to keep pace with the slugging Blue Jays, who have tagged up Yankees pitching for 23 runs over two games.
The Yankee offense had yet to bust out, scoring four runs or less in their first four postseason games, before they finally found the lumber late on Sunday. They have a .244 team batting average through five games, with 10 extra-base hits and 17 runs. New York hitters have struck out 50 times to counter their 10 walks. Aaron Judge had two hits and an RBI in Sunday’s loss. In five games, the outfield has collected exactly two hits four times. Going back to the regular season, Judge has reached base in 21 of his last 22 games. Cody Bellinger has a home run and four RBIs. Anthony Volpe has a home run and two RBIs, but has also struck out 10 times in five games.
Pitching for the club has been clobbered over the past two games, serving up 29 hits and 23 hits. The Yanks have a 6.07 team ERA through five games, the worst mark in the American League, and opponents are hitting .282 against them. They’ve allowed nine home runs and 15 walks. The bullpen has struggled in a big way, allowing 17 runs over 17 innings as opponents have hit .324 against New York’s relievers. Luke Weaver has appeared in three innings but logged only 0.1 innings, allowing five runs, four hits, and two walks. David Bednar and Fernando Cruz each allowed one run in their three appearances.
Stater spotlight
- Carlos Rodon faced the Blue Jays twice in the regular season, going 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA.
- Lifetime, the left-hander is 2-3 with a 4.72 ERA in nine starts versus Toronto.
- Allowed three runs, four hits and three walks, and struck out six in six innings versus the Red Sox in the Wild Card round.
- Is 1-3 with a 6.15 ERA in seven career playoff starts.
- Rodon was first in the A.L. with a .188 opponents’ batting average, while allowing 22 home runs and 73 walks.
- Fourth in A.L. with 203 strikeouts.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Picks
Spread Pic for Blue Jays vs. Yankees
- Yankees -148 (5 units)
New York took two of three games from Toronto when these two last met for a series at Yankee Stadium in early September. The Yanks are 2-1 at Yankee Stadium in the postseason, and this is the Blue Jays' first postseason road game. This will be the second elimination game that Rodon will be starting for the club, and he fared well to keep the club alive last Wednesday. At Yankee Stadium this season, the southpaw is 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA, holding opponents to a .154 average. Rodon is the kind of guy who can deflect a couple of runs and still stand firm. I expect him to step up in this matchup to once again keep the team alive. His counterpart, Bieber, is on just his eighth start since TJ, so we know he isn’t in full form. He's done well since returnin,g but has given up at least two runs in five outings. The Yankee offense picked up some confidence in their last game, despite the final result, so I’m expecting them to pick up the pace and maybe sneak out a couple of those favorable Yankee Stadium home runs in the process. The return trip home keeps New York alive for at least one more game.
Take the Yankees.
Over/Under Pick for Blue Jays vs. Yankees
- Over 7.5 (5 units)
In two games, these teams have averaged a combined 15.5 runs per game. The Blue Jays cleared the over by themselves, scoring at least 10 runs in each game. While I am expecting a decent starting pitching matchup, I am not expecting either hurler to go the distance. With that said, both bullpens are extremely vulnerable. Between them, their relievers allowed a combined 24 runs over 24 innings. New York’s offense scored one run in both game one that they’ve played in, but in their other efforts, they scored at least four runs. Putting up seven on Sunday should have them much more confident heading back home, where 409 runs in the regular season. Toronto can hit on the road, boasting a .260 team average with 367 runs. The over is 5-4-1 in the last ten games between these A.L. East rivals.
Take the over.
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