Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees, ALDS, Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, October 8, 2025
New York extended the ALDS with a 9-6 win at home on Tuesday night, so we’re making sure you are up and ready for Wednesday’s Game 4 with our Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions. RHP Kyle Varland (4-3, 2.97 ERA), who picked up the loss on Tuesday, will be the opener for Toronto in this game. New York will go with Wild Card hero, RHP Cam Schlittler (4-3, 2.96 ERA) as their starter. The first pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:08 EST and with all four series in action on Wednesday, check out our Free MLB Picks.
Blue Jays boot chance to sweep
After ravaging Yankee pitching over the first two games of the series, the Blue Jays had their pitching roughed up in Game 3 on Tuesday night. On the heels of two costly errors, the club went through seven pitchers in the loss and five of them allowed at least a run. On the bright side, their hitting stayed active, scoring six runs in the first three innings before going dark.
Through three games, Toronto’s offense is hitting .345 and has hit nine home runs, two more than the next closest team, the Cubs, who have played five games. The Jays also had eight doubles and seven walks while striking out just 18 times. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. stayed red-hot, hitting a home run for a third straight game on Tuesday night. The first baseman is hitting .615 in the series with eight RBIs and five runs. Ernie Clement went 4-4 in Tuesday’s game and has hits in five straight at-bats.
Pitching for the Jays this series has come with a 5.19 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and the Yanks are hitting .269 against them. They’ve struck out 27 batters, walked only nine and have surrendered just one home run. Tuesday’s starter, Shane Bieber, lasted just 2.2 innings before giving way for six relievers. Thus far, their bullpen has accounted for 12.1 innings and have allowed 12 earned runs and 19 hits.
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Starter spotlight
- Louis Varland has appeared in all three games in this series and has a 6.75 ERA over 2.2 innings of work. This will be a bullpen game.
- Is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three career regular-season games against New York.
- Appeared in 74 games in the regular season, tied for fourth most in the A.L.
- Opponents hit .244 against him with six home runs and 22 walks.
- Made one start as an opener this season, tossing two scoreless innings and striking out three against Boston.
Yankees bets keep hope alive
The Yankees' backs were really against the wall when they found themselves down, 6-1, in the third inning of Tuesday night’s game before the offense turned the tide and helped keep the season alive. The team pounded out 12 hits on the night, and five different relievers combined to throw 6.2 scoreless innings.
In their six postseason games, the Yankees’ offense is hitting .261 with five home runs and 26 runs scored. They’ve drawn 14 walks but also struck out 56 times. Aaron Judge had three hits in Tuesday’s win and connected for his first home run of the postseason while driving in four runs. He has five multi-hit efforts in six postseason games this season after having only nine in his first 58 playoff appearances. Giancarlo Stanton drove in two runs for the second straight game on Tuesday. The New York slugger is hitting .167 in the postseason.
Yankee pitching ranks last among American League staffs in the postseason with a 6.06 staff ERA, coupled with a 1.42 WHIP. Opponents have hit .277 against the club and they’ve walked 17 batters while striking out 48. The bullpen has allowed 17 runs and 26 hits over 23.2 innings and Aaron Boone has used five different guys at least three times thus far.
Starter spotlight
- Including his Wild Card outing, this will be Cam Schlittler’s 16th career MLB start.
- Is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA in two starts versus the Blue Jays.
- Struck out a career high 12 batters against Boston in the Wild Card series.
- Recorded at least eight strike outs in five of his last nine starts.
- In regular season, opponents hit .217 against him with eight home runs and 31 walks.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Picks
Spread Pick for Blue Jays vs. Yankees
- Blue Jays +154 (5 units)
With a slight shift in the momentum, this series got a bit more interesting. The Blue Jays are going with a bullpen game here and thus far they’ve used 11 different relievers, seven of them appearing in at least two games thus far. Strangely, I think it will favor them in the long run. The Yankees did well to adjust in the last two games to the constant pitching changes, but they were also gifted extra life a few times thanks to some big Toronto errors. The Jays can clean things up defensively; that shouldn’t be too hard. Their bats are just fine and though Schlittler was a monster in the Wild Card clincher, the rookie can only do so much. The Red Sox lineup he faced wasn’t nearly as ferocious as the Jays are right now. The Blue Jays know him, and they did some damage against him in the regular season. Toronto’s bats are too blazing hot to be cooled right now.
Take the Blue Jays to close it out.
Over/Under Pick for Blue Jays vs. Yankees
- Over 8.5 (5 units)
The series belongs to the bats, with an average of 15.3 runs per game. These were the two most productive American League offenses and that has been on full display here. There is no reason to think it’ll change up all of a sudden. The Blue Jays are going with a bullpen game, which is always a challenge. They open with Varland, who has pitched in all three games already and he gave up two home runs last night. Yankee’s starter Schlittler, though dominant in his Wild Card performance, has actually been hit well by Toronto in two starts this season, so I don’t see him doing what he did against the Red Sox here. On top of that, Yankee Stadium is a band box, and any fly ball could easily clear a wall in that place. The over has hit in all three games this series and in five of the last ten games between the teams.
Take the over.
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