Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Sunday August 23, 2026

The Toronto Blue Jays will visit the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York, on Sunday, August 23, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET, with coverage available on MLB.TV. Toronto enters at 63-67 overall and 30-34 on the road, while New York is 73-55 overall and 32-27 at home. The Yankees come into the weekend riding a five-game winning streak, while Toronto has dropped three of its last five. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Bettors looking over Sunday's card can also check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions.

Starting Pitchers

Toronto is expected to start Jose Soriano, who enters at 10-6 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.26 WHIP across 139.1 innings. He has allowed 114 hits while recording 136 strikeouts against 62 walks and has surrendered 13 home runs. New York counters with Carlos Rodon, who is 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 50.1 innings. Rodon has allowed 34 hits while striking out 56 and walking 28, with only four home runs surrendered. The ERA numbers are nearly identical, but New York holds a slight WHIP advantage while Toronto's starter has carried the much larger workload.

Blue Jays Need More Offensive Support

Toronto enters Sunday four games below .500 at 63-67 and has gone 30-34 away from home. The Blue Jays are 2-3 over their last five games, with the latest result a 3-1 loss at Yankee Stadium. They have been competitive in several recent matchups, but inconsistent scoring has made it difficult to turn close games into wins.

The Blue Jays are batting .245 as a team with 514 runs, 1,072 hits and 123 home runs. Their .306 on-base percentage and .379 slugging percentage both trail New York, while the power gap is significant. Toronto's pitching staff has been more respectable, carrying a 3.96 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while holding opponents to a .239 batting average.

Toronto's biggest issue in this matchup is offensive production. The Blue Jays have scored 54 fewer runs and hit 53 fewer home runs than the Yankees. Their pitching gives them a chance to stay competitive, but the offense has much less margin for error against a New York team playing its best baseball of the recent stretch.

Yankees Enter With Strong Momentum

New York comes into this matchup at 73-55 and sits three games behind Tampa Bay in the American League East. The Yankees have gone 32-27 at home and enter Sunday with five consecutive victories. Their recent run includes three straight road wins over Baltimore followed by a 3-1 home victory against Toronto.

The Yankees are batting only .230 as a team, but that number does not tell the full story of their offensive profile. New York has scored 568 runs and hit 176 home runs while posting a .407 slugging percentage, considerably better than Toronto's .379 mark. The Yankees have also been excellent on the mound, carrying a 3.20 team ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .223 opponent batting average.

The pitching differential is the most important team-level edge. New York has the better ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average, while its offense brings substantially more power. Toronto owns the higher batting average, but the Yankees have been far more dangerous in terms of extra-base damage and overall run production.

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline

New York is the preferred side in this matchup. The Yankees own the better record, stronger recent form, superior power numbers and the better overall pitching profile. Toronto has a capable starter and can keep this game competitive, but the Blue Jays have not generated enough consistent offense to offset New York's advantages. With the Yankees entering on a five-game winning streak and playing at home, New York is the more reliable side.

Pick: Under 8.5

The Under is the preferred total if the number is set at 8.5. Both projected starters enter with ERAs around 3.2, and New York's pitching staff has been one of its biggest strengths with a 3.20 team ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Toronto has also struggled to generate runs consistently, scoring only one run in Friday's series opener. New York has plenty of power, but the starting-pitching matchup makes a lower-scoring game more appealing than an offensive shootout.

Side Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline

Total Pick: Under 8.5

Game Preview completed prior to play on Saturday.