Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Picks and Prediction, Friday, September 5, 2025
We have a massive series kicking off in the Bronx on Friday night between the two best teams in the American League East, so be sure to check out our Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions before the craziness begins. Toronto (81-59, 1st in A.L. East) will have RHP Kevin Gausman (8-10, 3.75 ERA) on the mound as their starter. New York (77-62, 2nd in A.L. East) will roll with RHP Cam Schlitter (2-2, 2.61 ERA) as their starter. The first pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 EST, so don’t go down on strikes, get our top MLB Betting Picks.
(This was published prior to the conclusion of Thursday’s games.)
Blue Jays grip slipping
The Blue Jays were able to enjoy an off day on Thursday but in going 5-5 over their last ten games, they sat just 3.5 games up on both New York and Boston in the East. They were able to win two straight at Cincinnati prior to this series, behind a pair of offensive explosions of 12-plus runs. They’ve scored at least eight runs in each of their last five victories. This season, the team has an American League-best .270 batting average, and their 704 runs were second most. Over the last half month, they scored 79 runs while hitting .294 over 12 games.
Quick hits
- Toronto batters have struck out 949 times, second fewest in the A.L.
- Bo Bichette drove in five runs over three games versus the Reds and is seventh in the league with 91 RBIs.
- George Springer is tied for second in the A.L. with 90 runs and Vladimi Guerrero Jr. is right behind him with 89.
Toronto’s pitching has struggled of late, allowing nine runs in each of their last two games and at least five runs in six of their last seven. Through 140 games, the staff had a 4.29 ERA, 1.278 WHIP and .243 opponents’ batting average with 1,244 strikeouts, second most in the A.L. Starting pitching for the club has a 45-39 record and 4.39 ERA while the bullpen has helped out by adding 36 wins and 39 saves, with a 4.15 ERA over 512.1 innings. Friday’s starter, Kevin Gausman, is making his 28th start with the team owning a 14-13 record in his prior efforts.
Pitching spotlight
- Over the last 12 games, Toronto’s pitching had a 5.02 ERA with 19 home runs against.
- Gausman is 11-10 lifetime against the Yankees with a 3.78 ERA.
- In 62 relief appearances, Jeff Hoffman is 8-2 and is tied for third in the A.L. with 30 saves.
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Yankees making a play
The Yankees had a massive seven-game winning streak last week and then went 1-2 in the wake of it, before their series finale in Houston on Thursday. The club is 3.5 back of Toronto in the East and they are a percentage point above Boston for the top Wild Card slot. The offense has provided plenty of field for their recent run of success, with four double-digit efforts in their last eight wins. They lead the American League with 733 runs and their .251 team batting average ranks seventh. Over the last 15 days, they scored 78 runs and hit .247 over 13 games.
Quick hits
- New York leads all of baseball with 239 home runs, 39 more than the next closest team.
- Aaron Judge is second in the A.L. with 43 home runs and he leads the league with a .323 batting average.
- Jose Caballero leads the league with 42 stolen bases.
Pitching has done well in their current run, allowing two runs or less in four of their last eight games. They were second in the league over the last 15 days with a 3.23 ERA and they allowed only nine home runs over their last 13 games. On the year, the staff has a 3.93 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .230 batting average and 1,243 strikeouts. Yankees starters had a league-best 54 wins with a 3.69 ERA, and their relievers had only 23 wins to go with 35 saves and a 4.31 ERA. Rookie Cam Schlitter makes the 10th start of his career, with the Yankees owning a 5-4 mark when he’s on the bump.
Pitching spotlight
- Yankees’ pitchers have given up 484 walks, fourth most in the American League.
- Schlitter faced Toronto in late July but did not factor into the decision after allowing two runs, seven hits and three walks over five innings.
- Luke Weaver leads the club with 16 holds and in 53 appearances, he has a 2.72 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Pick
Spread Pick for Blue Jays vs. Yankees
- Yankees -138 (5 units)
This is the final series of the season between the division rivals. Toronto owns a 7-3 lead to this point but were 1-2 when they last visited the Bronx. While Gausman has fared well versus New York in his career, he’s been less successful against them on their home turf, where the Blue Jays’ starter owns a 4.18 ERA in 19 games. His counterpart, Schlitter has been great of late, allowing just two earned runs over his last four starts. He hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in any big league start and at Yankee Stadium he is 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA. The 24-year-old should be able to sustain the levity of the moment, given that everything has been a big start since he’s joined the rotation. This one is no different than his last. The Yankee hurler has limited the walks and kicked up the strikeout totals since he last faced the Jays in just his second career start. I expect the youngster to step up to the situation and put his club in position to grab a key win in the series opener. This should be a great series only made better by New York putting pressure on with a first game win.
Take the Yankees.
Over/Under Pick for Blue Jays vs. Yankees
- Over 8.5 (5 units)
When these two get together, they tend to throw some heavy blows at each other. In their ten games against each other this season, at least one side scored five runs in eight games and at least eight runs in five games. These are the two top scoring teams in the American League going at it. With so much pressure, pitchers are bound to make mistakes and both sides have ample bats who will take full advantage. Toronto scored 13 runs on Wednesday and 12 the day prior. They scored five runs or more in eight of their last 12 games. New York’s offense scored at least 10 runs in four of their last nine games and five runs in nine of their last ten. The over is 6-3-1 when these two meet.
Take the over.
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