Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Friday, July 10, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Petco Park in San Diego, California, to take on the San Diego Padres on Friday, July 10, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 PM ET, and the game will be televised on MLB.TV. Toronto enters the matchup with a 44-49 overall record and a 20-24 mark on the road, while San Diego is 46-46 overall with a 25-22 home record. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives the Padres a 55.9% chance to win, while the Blue Jays are listed at 44.1%. Be sure to check out our free MLB Picks.
Starting Pitchers
Toronto is expected to hand the ball to Shane Bieber, who enters with a 0-1 record, a 9.00 ERA, and a 2.08 WHIP over 13.0 innings. He has allowed 20 hits while striking out nine batters, walking seven, and surrendering six home runs. San Diego is projected to counter with JP Sears, who owns a 2-1 record with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP across 15.1 innings. Sears has allowed 14 hits while recording 14 strikeouts, issuing seven walks, and giving up four home runs. Based strictly on the supplied statistics, Sears enters with the lower ERA, lower WHIP, and fewer home runs allowed.
Toronto Carries Momentum into the Series
The Blue Jays come into Friday night’s matchup with a 44-49 overall record and a 20-24 record on the road. Toronto has won two of its last five games, recently defeating San Francisco twice after dropping one game to the Giants and two contests against Seattle. Those back-to-back victories give the Blue Jays positive momentum as they head into San Diego.
Toronto is batting .244 with 376 runs, 761 hits, and 93 home runs. The Blue Jays own a .305 on-base percentage and a .383 slugging percentage. On the mound, they have compiled a 4.08 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP while holding opponents to a .239 batting average. The pitching staff has also recorded 825 strikeouts while issuing 327 walks, and Toronto owns a 25-27 record in night games.
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One area where Toronto stands out is its pitching staff. The Blue Jays have the lower team ERA, lower WHIP, lower opponent batting average, and more strikeouts than San Diego. Those numbers have helped keep them competitive even though their overall record remains below .500.
San Diego Looks to Stay Even on the Season
The Padres enter the opener with a 46-46 overall record and a 25-22 mark at Petco Park. San Diego has won three of its last five games, recently defeating Arizona twice after splitting the previous three contests against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. The Padres have played solid baseball lately and will try to build on that stretch at home.
San Diego is batting .226 with 362 runs, 681 hits, and 96 home runs. The Padres own a .301 on-base percentage and a .373 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has produced a 4.21 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP while allowing opponents to hit .247. San Diego has also struck out 749 batters and issued 330 walks, posting a 26-31 record in night games.
The Padres’ biggest advantage entering Friday is their recent consistency and home record. While the offensive numbers trail Toronto in several categories, San Diego has managed to stay around the .500 mark and carries the higher ESPN Matchup Predictor percentage into this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Pick
- Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline
I’ll side with San Diego in this matchup. The Padres have the better overall record, the stronger home record, and the higher win probability according to ESPN Analytics. They also hold the statistical edge in the projected starting pitching matchup, making San Diego the preferred side despite Toronto’s recent two-game winning streak.
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Total Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5
I’m taking the over if the total is set at 8.5. Both projected starters enter with ERAs above 4.50, and Toronto’s starter has allowed six home runs in just 13.0 innings. While both teams have been inconsistent offensively, I think the starting pitching matchup creates enough opportunities for this game to finish above the total.
Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres 6 – Toronto Blue Jays 4
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.
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