Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Sunday July 12, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres wrap up their weekend series on Sunday, July 12, 2026, at Petco Park in San Diego, California. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET, with television coverage on MLB.TV. Toronto enters the matchup with a 45-49 overall record and a 21-24 mark on the road, while San Diego is 46-48 overall and 25-24 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives the Blue Jays a 54.5% chance of winning compared with 45.5% for the Padres. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers
Toronto is scheduled to start Kevin Gausman, who enters with a 4-8 record, a 4.32 ERA, and a 1.22 WHIP over 106.1 innings. The right-hander has allowed 101 hits while striking out 108 and walking 29. He has surrendered 15 home runs this season. San Diego is expected to counter with German Marquez, who owns a 4-2 record, a 5.02 ERA, and a 1.43 WHIP across 37.2 innings. Marquez has allowed 36 hits while recording 24 strikeouts and issuing 18 walks. He has also given up eight home runs. Gausman holds the advantage in ERA, WHIP, innings pitched, strikeouts, and walks entering this matchup.
Toronto Carries Momentum Into the Finale
The Blue Jays enter Sunday with a 45-49 overall record and a 21-24 mark away from home. Toronto has won three of its last five games. The Blue Jays most recently defeated San Diego 5-3 after sweeping two games in San Francisco by scores of 10-0 and 9-3. Their only losses during this stretch came in a 10-1 game against San Francisco and a 4-0 defeat at Seattle.
Toronto is batting .244 with 381 runs, 770 hits, and 94 home runs. The Blue Jays have produced a .305 on-base percentage and a .383 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.07 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP while holding opponents to a .239 batting average. Toronto has recorded 833 strikeouts while issuing 330 walks. The Blue Jays are 19-22 in day games.
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Toronto’s biggest advantage comes from its pitching staff. The Blue Jays own a lower ERA, lower WHIP, and a better opponent batting average than the Padres. Toronto has also recorded more strikeouts over the course of the season while entering the series finale after winning three of its last four games.
San Diego Hopes to Even the Series
The Padres come into Sunday’s game with a 46-48 overall record and a 25-24 home record. San Diego has gone 2-3 over its last five contests. The Padres most recently lost to Toronto 5-3 after splitting a four-game series with Arizona. During that stretch, San Diego earned victories of 10-4 and 4-1 while falling by scores of 3-1 and 8-0.
San Diego is batting .225 with 366 runs, 694 hits, and 98 home runs. The Padres own a .300 on-base percentage and a .372 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has posted a 4.20 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .247. San Diego has recorded 764 strikeouts while issuing 334 walks. The Padres are 20-15 in day games.
The Padres’ greatest strength is their home performance. While San Diego trails Toronto in most offensive and pitching categories provided, the Padres have still managed a winning home record at 25-24. The challenge has been generating offense consistently, as San Diego has scored fewer runs, collected fewer hits, and produced a lower batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage than Toronto.
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Pick
- Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline
Toronto is my moneyline selection based on the overall statistical comparison. The Blue Jays have won three of their last four games, including Friday’s 5-3 victory over San Diego. They also hold the edge in the starting pitching matchup, with Gausman posting the better ERA, WHIP, strikeout total, and workload. Toronto also owns advantages in batting average, hits, ERA, WHIP, opponent batting average, and strikeouts. ESPN Analytics gives the Blue Jays the higher probability of winning, making Toronto my preferred side.
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Total Pick
- Pick: Take the under if the total is set at 8.5
I would take the under if the total is set at 8.5. Toronto’s pitching staff owns a 4.07 ERA, while San Diego has scored only 366 runs this season. Friday’s opener between these clubs finished with eight total runs, and Toronto’s pitching has consistently held opponents to a .239 batting average. With the Blue Jays carrying the stronger pitching profile and San Diego producing fewer runs offensively, I prefer the under if the total is set at 8.5.
Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays 5 – San Diego Padres 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.
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