Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners, Game 3, ALCS, Prediction and Picks for Wednesday, October 15th, 2025
The ALCS is back in action on Wednesday night, and it’s the Seattle Mariners who return home with a commanding 2-0 series lead over the top-seeded Toronto Blue Jays after winning both road games. We’ve got you covered with our Mariners vs. Blue Jays prediction for Game 3. Below, I’ll recap Game 2, touch on the odds moving forward, and dive into the Game 3 pitching matchup. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Blue Jays Hit the Road Trailing 0-2
The top-seeded Toronto Blue Jays absolutely tore through the Yankees, beating them in four games in the ALDS. After outscoring the divisional foe 34-19 in the Divisional Round and posting a home-field advantage-worthy regular-season record of 94-68, it looked like the Blue Jays were well on their way to making it back to the World Series for the first time since 1993. However, Toronto has fallen flat on its face during the ALCS, losing both of the opening games (3-1, 10-3) at home to Seattle. The Jays are now +431 longshots just to advance to the World Series, while sitting at +1200 to bring home the title.
Game 2 saw the pitching get lit up. This time, it was rookie Trey Yesavage who took the loss out of the starter’s role. He logged 4.0 innings and gave up five earned runs. Offense was tough to come by in the 10-3 defeat, as the Jays managed only six hits. Nathan Lukes registered a pair of RBI singles, while Alejandro Kirk went 1-for-3 with an RBI knock.
- Shane Bieber heads to the hill for Game 3, and the 30-year-old only made seven regular-season starts (40.1 IP) for the Jays this season.
- The right-handed former Cy Young Award winner was serviceable, but not overpowering, going 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP.
- Bieber started Game 3 of the ALDS against the Yankees, and he lasted only 2.2 innings, allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits and a walk.
- It was a no-decision effort in a game that the Jays lost 9-6.
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Mariners Take a Commanding 2-0 Lead
After losing the ALDS opener 3-2 to the Tigers, the Seattle Mariners have now won five of their last six games and sit only two wins away from going to the World Series. This would be the franchise’s first appearance in the Fall Classic. The odds are in Seattle’s favor, as the team, which holds a 2-0 lead in the ALCS, is priced at -575 to advance to the World Series. They’re just +175 to win the championship, with only the Dodgers (-105) having shorter odds.
Seattle’s pitching was superb in the opening road wins against Toronto (3-1, 10-3). As for Game 2, Eduard Bazardo (2.0 IP, 0 ER) earned the win in relief as the bullpen provided 6.0 scoreless frames. Offensively, the middle of the lineup exploded, with Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco, and Josh Naylor each going deep in the 10-3 rout.
- George Kirby will oppose Bieber on Wednesday night, and the right-hander is coming off of an excellent outing in the 15-inning series-clinching Game 5 against the Tigers on Friday.
- The right-hander tossed 5.0 innings and allowed only one earned run on three hits, but was yanked after only 66 pitches.
- The M’s went on to win the game 3-2 in 15 innings, so Kirby took a no-decision.
- Kirby owns a 2.70 ERA in two 2025 postseason starts (10.0 IP), and he’s coming off a 23-start season (126.0 IP) where he went 10-8 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Pick
Moneyline Pick for Blue Jays vs. Mariners
- Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-132) (5 units)
The Mariners are picking up a ton of momentum, and I have no interest in stepping in front of this Seattle train that’s full-steam ahead. The M’s have won five of their last six games, including notching a pair of series-opening road wins (3-1, 10-3) in Ontario earlier this week. T-Mobile Park was also a fortress for the Mariners this year, as the team went 51-30 SU at home.
Manager Dan Wilson will turn to George Kirby, who is on normal rest and coming off of a 66-pitch Game 5 performance in the 3-2 win over Detroit. The right-hander, who owns a 2.30 ERA in his last five starts (27.1 IP), should be able to supply some length for Seattle in this one. But even if he gets in some trouble, the Mariners can lean on their top-tier bullpen that has been lights out recently. Let’s ride with Seattle to go up 3-0 in the series.
Over/Under Pick for Blue Jays vs. Mariners
- Under 7.0 (-115) (5 units)
I’ll also be on the under in Game 3. For starters, T-Mobile is a pitcher-friendly park, which is exemplified by the fact that Seattle’s pitching staff ranked third in home ERA (3.28) and first in WHIP (1.09) during the regular season. As I mentioned, Kirby is dialed in at the moment, and he’ll take on a Blue Jays side that has mustered up only four runs on eight hits through the first two games. Additionally, their relief staff hasn’t given up a run in the last 18.1 innings!
On the other hand, we have Shane Bieber getting the nod for the Blue Jays. He has dominated the Mariners in the past, limiting their current roster to a slash line of .229/.263/.275 over 109 at-bats. Bieber brings in a respectable 3.15 ERA in his last four starts (20.0 IP), and I expect him to have his best stuff in what feels like a must-win game for the Jays.
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