Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction and Picks for Friday, October 17th, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Seattle Mariners (2-2) won both of the opening games in Ontario, but they saw their 2-0 series lead evaporate against the Toronto Blue Jays (2-2) when the series shifted back to Washington. This leaves us with a pivotal Game 5 clash on Friday night, and we’ve got you covered with our Blue Jays vs. Mariners prediction. Below, I’ll recap each team’s path to the ALCS, dive into the odds and starting pitchers, and finish with betting analysis and picks for Game 5. First pitch is scheduled for 6:08 ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Blue Jays Bounce Back, Even Series at 2-2
The Toronto Blue Jays dominated the regular season, going 94-68 and earning the top seed in the American League. The Blue Jays cruised past the Yankees in four games in the ALDS and it looked like they were well on their way to a World Series appearance with a favorable setup in the ALCS. Toronto ended up losing both games at home (3-1, 10-3) to start the series, but then they flipped the script by notching road victories in Games 3 (13-4) and 4 (8-2). The Blue Jays are now priced at -105 to win the ALCS, while sitting at +400 to win the World Series.
Game 4 saw Max Scherzer pick up the win out of the starter’s role, tossing 5.2 innings and allowing two earned runs. The offense exploded for a second straight game, dropping eight runs on 11 hits. Andres Gimenez was the star, going 2-for-3 with a home run and four RBI. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. blasted his fifth postseason home run in the winning effort.
- Kevin Gausman heads to the bump in this pivotal Game 5, and this will be his second outing of the series and third this postseason.
- After going 10-11 with a 3.59 ERA (22nd) and a 1.06 WHIP (11th) during the regular season, the right-hander is 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP during the playoffs (11.1 IP).
- Gausman started Game 1 on Sunday, and he lasted 5.2 innings, conceding two earned runs on three hits and a walk.
- He was saddled with the loss in a 3-1 defeat.
Mariners Squander a 2-0 Lead
Meanwhile, the vibes cannot be too high for the Seattle Mariners at this point in the series. They won both road games (3-1, 10-3) to open up the series, but have dropped the two subsequent games (13-4, 8-2) and now are tied up at 2-2. The home-field advantage has flipped back to the Jays, and the M’s are now priced at -115 to win the series. Seattle is at +375 to win the World Series.
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The Game 4 loss fell on Luis Castillo in the starter’s role. The right-hander lasted only 2.1 innings and gave up three earned runs on five hits and a walk. The offense didn’t do its part either, as they managed only two runs on five hits. Josh Naylor got the party started with a solo shot in the 2nd, but it was all downhill from there.
- Bryce Miller pitched Game 1 against Gausman, and he’s gearing up to make his third postseason start as well.
- The right-hander is 1-0 during the playoffs with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, and he’s building on a mediocre regular campaign where he went 4-6 with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.
- Circling back to Game 1, Miller was fantastic, allowing only one earned run on two hits and three walks over 6.0 innings.
- He picked up the win in a 3-1 affair.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Pick
Moneyline Pick for Blue Jays vs. Mariners
- Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-105) (5 units)
This is going to be a massive, pivotal Game 5 clash on Friday night. Both of these starting pitchers, Kevin Gausman (5.2 IP, 2 ER) and Bryce Miller (6.0 IP, 1 ER), were electric in Game 1. Seattle went on to win that contest 3-1, marking the first of their two series-opening road wins. I’m going to ride with the M’s to get back in the win column and take a 3-2 series lead.
Ultimately, this one boils down to the head-to-head metrics from the starters, my trust in Seattle’s high-leverage bullpen guys, and the home-field advantage. Miller has mowed down the Jays throughout his career, limiting them to a slash line of .204/.291/.367 over 49 at-bats. Furthermore, Manager Dan Wilson can lean on his top-tier bullpen, which has posted a 3.95 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP during the playoffs. They have arguably the most lethal setup man and closer remaining in the playoffs. And finally, I have to think the M’s can secure one win at home, since they went 51-30 SU at T-Mobile during the regular season. I’m riding with Seattle.
Over/Under Pick for Blue Jays vs. Mariners
- Under 7.0 (-115) (5 units)
I think it’s time to buy back on an under in this series. For starters, the pitching almost always ramps up when the stakes get higher. Additionally, we just saw this pitching matchup in Game 1, and it finished with only four combined runs between the teams. I mentioned Miller’s head-to-head numbers above, and well, Gausman’s are nearly just as good. The right-hander has limited the Mariners to a slash line of just .232/.279/.387 over 155 at-bats.
Finally, I was able to dig up a metric about these pitching staffs on when the game is “late/close” over at MLB.com, essentially pointing to the success of the high-leverage arms. In the postseason, in close late-game settings, the Mariners are first in WHIP (0.66) and first in opposing batting average (.093). I expect to see Seattle stifle Toronto’s bats in this key game, which will ultimately lead to this game finishing under the number.
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