Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction and Picks for Thursday, October 16th, 2025
Well, we might have a series on our hands! The Toronto Blue Jays (1-2) bounced back with a 13-4 road win on Wednesday night, breaking into the win column for the first time in the ALCS against the Seattle Mariners (2-1). The A.L. foes are back at it for Game 4 on Thursday, and we’ve got you covered with our Blue Jays vs. Mariners prediction.
Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 8:33 ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Blue Jays Bounce Back, Take Game 3
The Toronto Blue Jays posted an American League best record of 94-68 during the regular season, meaning the A.L. pennant ran through Ontario. The Jays cruised past the Yankees in four games in the ALDS, but then ran into some early turmoil against the Mariners in the ALCS. They dropped both of the opening games (3-1, 10-3) in Toronto, putting them behind the eight-ball at 0-2. The Blue Jays were able to bounce back in a big way on Wednesday night, hammering the Mariners 13-4 and pulling within a game in the series. From here, Toronto is +215 to win the ALCS, while sitting at +750 to win their first World Series since 1993.
The offense finally woke up on Wednesday night, going for 13 runs on 18 hits. George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger, and Andres Gimenez all homered in the 13-4 rout. As for the pitching, Shane Bieber (6.0 IP, 2 ER) looked sharp and picked up the win out of the starter’s role.
- Max Scherzer heads to the bump for Game 4, and this will be his first playoff action after missing the ALDS roster last round.
- The right-hander did not pitch well in the regular season, going 5-5 with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 17 starts (85.0 IP).
- Scherzer last pitched on September 24th against the Red Sox, and he got shelled for four earned runs on 10 hits over 5.0 innings.
- He took the loss in the 7-1 defeat, capping off a four-start September (15.0 IP) where he posted a 10.20 ERA.
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Mariners Hammered in Game 3, Lead Series 2-1
Meanwhile, it appeared that after winning the opening games of the ALCS (3-1, 10-3), the Seattle Mariners may be in for a pretty easy ride to the World Series. That’s not going to be the case, as the M’s got smoked 13-4 in Game 3 and now they hold a slim 2-1 edge in the series. The sports betting market is still siding with the M’s, pricing them at -260 to advance to the World Series. Seattle sits at +225 to win the title, with only the Dodgers (-140) having shorter odds.
Wednesday’s 13-4 shellacking at the hands of the Blue Jays fell on George Kirby. He started and gave up eight earned runs on eight hits and two walks over just 4.0 innings. Offensively, Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh, and Jorge Polanco all homered in the loss.
- Luis Castillo will oppose Scherzer in Game 4, and the 32-year-old starter has been lights out this postseason.
- In two appearances (6.0 IP), the right-hander has logged a 0.00 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP.
- Castillo is on full rest, as his last outing was a Game 5 relief appearance (1.1 IP, 0 ER) in the ALDS, where he earned the win in that 15-inning barnburner against the Tigers.
- As for his regular-season numbers, Castillo went 11-8 across 32 starts (180.2 IP), posting a 3.54 ERA (21st) and a 1.18 WHIP (20th).
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Pick
Moneyline Pick for Blue Jays vs. Mariners
- Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (+118) (5 units)
I view this game a bit closer to a pick ‘em, so I’m going to take an underdog flier on the Blue Jays in Game 4. For starters, their offense has finally been woken up, as they just dropped 13 runs and 18 hits on the Mariners on Wednesday night.
Now, the big question mark in this matchup is Max Scherzer. He wasn’t good this year with a 5.19 ERA, but he does have excellent numbers against the Mariners. Their current roster is slashing just .204/.246/.444 against him over 54 head-to-head at-bats. He’ll also have a very short leash, and with the blowout win on Wednesday, Toronto’s bullpen is fully rested and ready to be deployed. Like I mentioned, I think this game is a bit of a toss-up, so I’ll ride the momentum and back the Blue Jays in this spot.
Over/Under Pick for Blue Jays vs. Mariners
- Over 7.5 (-115) (5 units)
I’m also locking in the over in Seattle on Thursday night. Building on my case for the Blue Jays, and why I also like the over, is because Toronto has found success against Luis Castillo in the past. Their current roster is slashing .256/.288/.451 against him across 133 at-bats. Furthermore, they faced Castillo twice this year, scoring eight runs against him in 10.0 innings (7.20 ERA) and posting a .370 team batting average.
On the flip side, I’m also not expecting Scherzer to be lights out. We can’t just ignore that he posted a 10.20 ERA in his final four starts (15.0 IP) of the regular season. This is a Mariners squad that can absolutely rake, as they finished the regular season with 238 home runs (third). Both offenses should be able to contribute enough scoring to get this final score over the number.
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