Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 20 2026

The Toronto Blue Jays visit the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, on Sunday, September 20, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 2:35 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Toronto enters at 76-78 overall and 36-40 on the road, while Texas is 77-77 overall and 43-33 at home. The Rangers won the only completed game of the current series 7-1 on Friday and have won four of their last five completed games. Texas is tied atop the AL West at 77-77, while Toronto sits 17.5 games behind Tampa Bay in the AL East. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Toronto has not announced its starting pitcher for Sunday's series finale. Texas is scheduled to start Jacob deGrom, who enters at 11-9 with a 3.79 ERA and an excellent 1.07 WHIP through 154.1 innings. He has allowed 126 hits and 20 home runs while recording 194 strikeouts against only 39 walks. Without a confirmed Toronto starter, a complete head-to-head pitching comparison cannot be made, but Texas enters with a significant amount of certainty on its side. deGrom has allowed fewer than one hit per inning and owns nearly a five-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio, giving the Rangers a strong foundation entering the matchup.

Toronto Needs Its Offense to Rebound

Toronto enters Sunday at 76-78 overall with a 36-40 road record. The Blue Jays have gone 2-3 across their last five completed games, scoring 20 runs while allowing 25. The results have been inconsistent, with Toronto scoring eight runs in one victory and five in another but managing only one run in each of two losses. That includes Friday's 7-1 defeat at Globe Life Field, which gave Texas the early advantage in the current series.

The Blue Jays are batting .248 with 1,288 hits, 620 runs and 148 home runs. They own a .310 on-base percentage and .383 slugging percentage. Toronto's pitching has been stronger than its offensive production, posting a 3.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while holding opponents to a .236 batting average. The staff has recorded 1,336 strikeouts against 571 walks.

Toronto's biggest concern entering Sunday is generating enough offense against a difficult opposing starter. The Blue Jays have a slightly higher team batting average than Texas, but the Rangers have produced 25 more runs and 26 more home runs while carrying advantages in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Toronto's season-long pitching numbers give it a chance to remain competitive, but the uncertainty surrounding Sunday's starter makes the matchup more difficult to evaluate from the Blue Jays' side.

Texas Has Home Field and the Pitching Advantage

Texas enters Sunday at an even 77-77 overall but has performed much better at Globe Life Field, going 43-33 at home. The Rangers have won four of their last five completed games, with their only defeat during that stretch coming by one run. They have scored 28 runs while allowing 16 across those five contests and opened the current series by beating Toronto 7-1. That combination of recent form and home performance gives Texas a meaningful situational advantage.

The Rangers are batting .244 with 1,245 hits, 645 runs and 174 home runs. Their .318 on-base percentage and .398 slugging percentage both exceed Toronto's marks, while their 174 home runs provide considerably more power. Texas has been less impressive from a season-long pitching standpoint, recording a 4.28 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with opponents batting .247. The staff has issued 468 walks while collecting 1,288 strikeouts.

Texas' strongest case Sunday comes from combining its home-field performance with the scheduled pitching matchup. The Rangers are five games under .500 away from Arlington but 10 games above .500 at home. They also enter in better recent form and have a significant power advantage over Toronto. The Blue Jays own the better overall team ERA, but Sunday's individual pitching situation favors Texas until Toronto announces a starter capable of narrowing that gap.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Picks and Prediction

Pick: Texas Rangers Moneyline

Texas is the preferred side for Sunday's matchup. The Rangers have won four of their last five completed games, are 43-33 at Globe Life Field and defeated Toronto 7-1 in the only completed game of this series. They also have the advantage of knowing what they are getting from their scheduled starter, while Toronto's starter remains undecided. The Blue Jays have the better season-long team ERA, so this is not a completely one-sided matchup, but Texas combines better recent form, stronger home results and more offensive power. With ESPN's supplied matchup predictor also giving Texas a 59.4% probability, the Rangers are the side to back if the eventual moneyline remains reasonable.

Pick: Under 8.5 or Higher

The Under 8.5 or higher is the preferred total target. Texas' scheduled starter has a 3.79 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 194 strikeouts through 154.1 innings, while Toronto has scored only 620 runs this season and owns a modest .383 slugging percentage. The Blue Jays' pitching staff has also quietly been solid, carrying a 3.91 ERA while holding opponents to a .236 batting average. Toronto's undecided starter adds uncertainty and keeps this from being a stronger Under position, but the available numbers point toward Texas having the pitching advantage without necessarily requiring a high-scoring game. At 8.5 or better, there is enough room to back the Under.

Final Picks: Texas Rangers Moneyline and Under 8.5 or Higher

This preview was completed on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.