Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, September 23, 2025
In our Nationals vs. Braves prediction, the Washington Nationals are fifth in the NL East with a 64-93 record so far. They are having rookie right-hander Brad Lord get the start as he is coming off a no-decision against the Atlanta Braves where he pitched 5.1 innings and allowed two runs on six hits with one walk and four strikeouts.
The Atlanta Braves are struggling as they are sitting in fourth place in the NL East with a 74-83 record entering this game. Rookie right-hander Hurston Waldrep takes the ball and is coming off a victory over the Washington Nationals where he pitched five innings and gave up three runs on five hits with zero walks and eight strikeouts.
First pitch focus — MLB picks for Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves that cut through the noise.
Nationals Looking to Figure Things Out
The Washington Nationals have been a brutal offensive team as they are 25th in the sport with a .691 team OPS while averaging 4.24 runs per game. Washington has been doing well at stealing bases as they are 10th in the majors with 129 steals while being caught 47 times. Right fielder James Wood has been hitting at a great level as he has a .806 OPS with 27 home runs, 89 RBI, 83 runs scored, and 15 steals while being caught seven times.
Brad Lord has been struggling, according to his Baseball Savant page as he is in the 12th percentile in xBA, 19th percentile in chase percentage, 21st percentile in whiff percentage, and 24th percentile in xERA. He has a five-pitch arsenal (fastball, slider, sinker, changeup, slurve) and his fastball has been getting hit as hitters have a .257 batting average and .412 slugging percentage with six home runs and 55 strikeouts against it. Lord faced the Braves four times this season (one start) as he is 0-1 in 10.1 innings and gave up four runs on 13 hits with three walks and 12 strikeouts.
Injury Report for Washington
- Right fielder Daylen Lile: Knee (Questionable)
- Pitcher Cole Henry: Back (OUT)
- Catcher Drew Millas: Finger (OUT)
- Pitcher Derek Law: Forearm (OUT)
- Catcher Keibert Ruiz: Concussion (OUT)
- Pitcher Trevor Williams: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher DJ Herz: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Josiah Gray: Elbow (OUT)
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Braves Looking Towards 2026
The Atlanta Braves are doing a respectable job at the plate as they are 13th in the bigs with a .720 team OPS while scoring 4.52 runs per game. The team has been able to hit a good amount of homers as they are 15th with 181 total home runs thus far. First baseman Matt Olson has been stepping up as he is posting a .276/.371/.488 slash line with 28 home runs, 93 RBI, 95 runs scored, and 90 walks to 170 strikeouts.
Hurtston Waldrep is pitching well this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page as he is in the 93rd percentile in barrel percentage, 68th percentile in hard hit percentage, 66th percentile in whiff percentage, and 64th percentile in strikeout percentage. He has six different pitches (splitter, cutter, sinker, curveball, slider, fastball) and his splitter has been his best pitch as hitters have a .145 batting average and .224 slugging percentage with one home run and 41 strikeouts. Waldrep faced the Nationals once this season in a win as he gave up three runs on five hits with zero walks and eight strikeouts in five innings of work.
Injury Report for Atlanta
- Third baseman Vidal Brujan: Hip (Questionable)
- Pitcher Daysbel Hernandez: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Aaron Bummer: Shoulder (OUT)
- Right fielder Jake Fraley: Oblique (OUT)
- Catcher Sean Murphy: Hip (OUT)
- Third baseman Austin Riley: Abdominal (OUT)
- Pitcher Grant Holmes: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver: Calf/Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Reynaldo Lopez: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Joe Jimenez: Knee (OUT)
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Pick
Spread Pick for Nationals vs. Braves
- Atlanta Braves ML (5 units)
The previous seven starts from these pitchers show a massive divide as Brad Lord is 2-2 with a 6.31 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 35.2 innings while Hurston Waldrep is 3-1 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 38.2 innings during that span. Since the All-Star break, there is a significant gap between these lineups as the Nats are tied with the Los Angeles Angels for 28th with a .677 team OPS in their 61 games, while the Braves are up at ninth with a .746 team OPS in their 62 games. Atlanta has won the last eight games against Washington, so go with the Atlanta Braves to record the win here.
Over/Under Pick for Nationals vs. Braves
- OVER (4 units)
Both bullpens are not doing too hot over the course of the season as the Nats are last with a 5.61 bullpen ERA while the Braves are 19th with a 4.21 reliever ERA so far. Both teams have been able to step up as Washington is tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for 14th with a .755 team OPS with runners in scoring position, while Atlanta is tied with the Athletics for 11th with a .761 team OPS in those opportunities. The over is 2-0-1 in their previous three games against one another, so go with the OVER once again.
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