Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction, Friday, September 5, 2025
The MLB weekend gets started with a matinee matchup between the Washington Nationals (56-83) and the Chicago Cubs (80-60), and we’ve got you covered with our Nationals vs. Cubs prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 2:20 ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL.
Nationals in the Cellar of the N.L. East
The Washington Nationals weren’t expected to make a playoff push this season, but they were hoping to take a step forward and see their budding stars contribute. That hasn’t been the case, as the Curly W’s are one of the worst teams in the Majors. They’re just 56-83, which means only 39-101 Rockies are worse in the National League. With all of that being said, the Nationals are coming off of a successful midweek series against the Marlins, where they broke out the brooms for a three-game sweep (2-0, 5-2, 10-5).
The offense shined in Wednesday’s 10-5 victory. Specifically, it was Nasim Nunez who led the way, going 3-for-4 with two home runs and four RBI. Jackson Rutledge (1.0 IP, 0 ER) picked up the win in relief.
- Jake Irvin gets the nod for Friday’s series opener, and the 28-year-old hurler hasn’t been overpowering in 2025.
- The right-hander comes into the weekend at 8-10, owning a 5.42 ERA (53rd) and a 1.41 WHIP (52nd).
- Irvin last pitched on Saturday against the Rays and got touched up for four earned runs on five hits and a walk over 6.0 innings.
- He took his third consecutive loss in the 4-1 defeat.
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Cubs In Contention in the N.L.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs are putting together an excellent season in 2025. If it weren’t for the red-hot 86-55 Brewers, the 80-60 Cubs would be the talk of the league. Chicago owns the third-best win% in the N.L. at .571, but they’re 5.5 games behind Milwaukee in the divisional race. At this point, the Cubs are +1200 to win the N.L. Central, while coming in at +1500 to win the World Series. Chicago just notched a home series win over Atlanta (W: 7-6, W: 4-3, L: 5-1) during their midweek series.
Wednesday’s 5-1 defeat against the Braves ultimately fell on the bullpen after Cade Horton tossed 5.0 scoreless frames. Ben Brown (1.1 IP, 2 ER) took the loss. The offense clearly didn’t supply much support, and the lone run came courtesy of an RBI single from Willi Castro in the 2nd.
- Javier Assad is set to make his fifth start on Friday, and the 28-year-old has been decent in 20.0 innings of work.
- He enters this game at 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.
- Assad last pitched in Denver on Saturday, where he limited the Rockies to three earned runs on seven hits and two walks over 6.0 innings.
- He picked up the win in the 4-3 victory.
Nationals vs. Cubs Picks
Spread Picks for Nats vs. Cubs
- Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-105) (5 units)
With the current form of Jake Irvin, I have absolutely no issues laying 1.5 runs and backing the Cubs on Friday. Irvin hasn’t been great this season with a 5.42 ERA overall, but in six August starts (27.2 IP), the right-hander logged a horrendous 8.78 ERA! Now he’s tasked with trying to slow down a Cubs offense that’s one of the best in the Majors, scoring 4.91 runs per game (sixth).
On the other end, we have Javier Assad going, and he has posted two consecutive quality starts. Washington’s current lineup is slashing a lousy .214/.283/.429 against him over 42 head-to-head at-bats. I’m riding with the Cubs -1.5.
Over/Under Pick for Nats vs. Cubs
- Over 10.5 (-105) (5 units)
There is a realistic chance that the Cubs put up 11+ runs in this game. I mean, this Nationals’ pitching staff has been awful this season, ranking 29th in ERA (5.28). As for the bullpen specifically, they’re dead last in ERA (5.35) and 28th in opposing batting average (.263). With Irvin’s awful form, Chicago is primed for a big-time offensive breakout.
As for the Nationals, they may contribute a few runs here as well. They’re coming off of a series sweep of the Marlins where they averaged 5.67 runs per game. It’s important to check the wind for these Friday afternoon games in Wrigley, and Mother Nature will have her hand in this one. The wind will be blowing out to right-field at 14.2 MPH at first pitch. I love this over.
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