Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Sunday August 23, 2026

The Washington Nationals will visit the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida, on Sunday, August 23, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET with coverage available on MLB.TV. Washington enters at 61-69 overall and 34-33 on the road, while Miami is 65-64 overall with an impressive 39-25 home record. The Nationals have lost four of their last five games, while Miami is 2-3 over its last five. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Bettors looking over Sunday's card can also check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions.

Starting Pitchers

Washington is expected to start Jackson Kent, who enters at 0-1 with a 9.39 ERA and 2.48 WHIP through 7.2 innings. Kent has allowed 11 hits while striking out nine and issuing eight walks, with one home run allowed. Miami counters with Janson Junk, who is 6-8 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.36 WHIP through 92.2 innings. Junk has surrendered 100 hits while recording 66 strikeouts against 26 walks and has allowed 12 home runs. Kent's major-league sample is extremely small, but his early control problems create a significant concern against a Miami club that has performed well at home.

Nationals Bring the Better Offensive Numbers

Washington enters Sunday at 61-69 overall but has been respectable away from home with a 34-33 road record. Recent results have been considerably less encouraging. The Nationals have dropped four of their last five, including a 3-2 loss to Miami in the series opener. Washington has scored three runs or fewer in four of those five games.

The season-long offensive statistics tell a different story. Washington is batting .249 with 678 runs, 1,110 hits and 183 home runs. The Nationals carry a .325 on-base percentage and .433 slugging percentage. Those numbers give Washington substantial advantages over Miami in both overall run production and power.

Pitching has been the problem. Washington owns a 4.67 team ERA and 1.39 WHIP while opponents are batting .257. The Nationals' offense has produced enough to keep this team competitive over the course of the season, but the pitching staff has consistently given opponents opportunities.

Marlins Look to Capitalize at Home

Miami enters at 65-64 overall and has been much stronger at loanDepot park, where the Marlins are 39-25. They recently snapped a three-game losing streak by beating Washington 3-2 and have an opportunity to exploit a favourable starting-pitching matchup Sunday.

The Marlins are batting .249 with 563 runs, 1,068 hits and 131 home runs. Miami has a .326 on-base percentage and .401 slugging percentage. The batting averages and on-base percentages between these clubs are almost identical, but Washington has generated considerably more power and overall scoring.

Miami's advantage comes on the pitching side. The Marlins have a 3.94 team ERA and 1.25 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .233 batting average. Compared with Washington's 4.67 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .257 opponent average, that is a meaningful separation. Add Miami's 39-25 home record and the Marlins have several advantages despite Washington possessing the more productive offense.

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction

Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline

Miami is the preferred side. Washington's offensive statistics are clearly better, so this isn't a matchup where the Marlins should be treated as an automatic play. The difference comes from pitching and venue. Miami owns the substantially better team ERA and WHIP, has been excellent at home, and gets the more established starting option. Washington's projected starter has worked only 7.2 innings but has already issued eight walks while producing a 9.39 ERA and 2.48 WHIP. With the Nationals also entering on a 1-4 run over their last five games, Miami has the stronger overall setup.

Pick: Over 8.5

Take the Over if the total is set at 8.5. Washington's recent scoring struggles create some concern, but the pitching matchup provides a strong path toward increased production. The Nationals have scored 678 runs and hit 183 home runs this season, while Miami draws a starter who has struggled badly with both baserunners and walks during his limited major-league action. Miami's starter carries a 4.37 ERA as well, giving Washington's more powerful offense opportunities to contribute. An 8.5 total offers enough room to back the offenses despite Miami's stronger season-long pitching numbers.

Side Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline

Total Pick: Over 8.5

Game Preview completed prior to play on Saturday.