Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Prediction and Picks - September 11, 2025
The Miami Marlins will host the Washington Nationals for the fourth of their four-game Miami series this Thursday, and we'll break down the lines and odds in our Nationals vs. Marlins prediction. The Marlins got on the board with an 8-3 win on Wednesday, breaking a streak of five straight losses to the Nationals this season after they were swept in their last trip to Washington. Game 4 will start at 6:40 PM ET on Thursday, September 11.
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Will Nationals Stay Hot in Miami?
The Washington Nationals aren't mathematically eliminated from playoff contention yet, but they're one of several teams that would need a wildly improbable sequence of events to unfold for them to crack the bracket. They're 60-85, fifth place in the NL East, 25.5 games behind the division-leading Phillies and 15.5 games behind a Mets team that would take the last NL wildcard bid if the season ended today. If the Nationals win each of their remaining 17 games – including three road games against the Mets – they'd still need a lot of help to get over the line. Despite all of that, the Nats are playing well–they're tied with the Phillies and San Francisco Giants for the best record among NL teams in their last ten games at 7-3.
Washington has notched 623 runs this season–tied with the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Angels for 20th among MLB teams. They rank 18th in batting average (.245) and 23rd in OPS (.700). Their pitching numbers are worse–they rank 29th in ERA (5.29) and batting average allowed (.266), leading only the Rockies in both categories. Their WHIP ranks 28th at 1.43, just good enough to lead the Angels (1.43) in addition to the Rockies.
MacKenzie Gore will start for the Nats on Thursday after activation from the 15-day injured list. He's 5-13 this season with a 4.15 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, but he ranks 17th among MLB pitchers in strikeouts with 173.
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Can Marlins Rebound From Rough Division Stretch?
Like their current opponent, the Miami Marlins aren't technically eliminated from the playoff picture with 16 games left to play. Unlike the Nats, they've swung hard in the wrong direction over the past week–primarily due to failure to win against their division rival. The Marlins are 2-7 in their last nine games, comprised of six games against the Nationals (1-5) separated by a home series against the Phillies (1-2). Now 67-79, the Marlins are 19 games behind Philly for the lead in the NL East and nine games behind the Mets for second; they're mathematically in the hunt, but only barely.
The Marlins rank 17th among MLB teams in runs (628) this season, as well as 12th in batting average (.250) and 21st in OPS (.707). Their pitching unit ranks 26th in ERA (4.80), 22nd in batting average allowed (.252), and 23rd in WHIP (1.33).
Ryan Weathers will start for the Marlins on Thursday after his activation from the 60-day injured list. He's 1-1 this season with a 3.28 ERA and 1.05 WHIP–impressive numbers, but dated ones. Weathers recorded his win this season in the Marlins' 3-1 victory over the Cubs in May; his last action came in their 11-10 win against the Rays in June.
Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Pick
Spread Pick for Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins
- Nationals +1.5 (-205) (4 Units)
The Nationals have dominated this series over the past week, winning five straight matchups against the Marlins by multiple runs before Wednesday's 8-3 Marlins win put them back on the board. Both teams are bringing pitchers back from the IL, but Gore has seen more recent action for the Nats. I'd take Washington to at least cover +1.5 as Miami reintegrates Weathers into their starting rotation.
Over/Under Pick for Nationals vs. Marlins
- Over 8.0 (-110) (4 Units)
Each of the last four meetings between these teams has seen one of them score seven or more runs. The Nats won 10-5 to close their series in Washington, won 15-7 and 7-5 to open the series in Miami, and the Marlins won 8-3 on Wednesday. I wouldn't expect a dip in scoring with both teams fielding starting pitchers that've missed time, especially with how long Weathers has been sidelined for the Marlins.
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