Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Friday, August 14, 2026

The Washington Nationals travel to Citi Field in Queens, New York, to face the New York Mets on Friday, August 14, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET, with coverage on MLB.TV. Washington enters the matchup at 59-63 overall and a solid 33-27 on the road, while New York is 53-69 overall and 25-34 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before making your wagers, check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Washington will start Andrew Alvarez, who enters at 2-3 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.40 WHIP across 69.1 innings. Alvarez has allowed 65 hits and 32 walks while recording 65 strikeouts and surrendering only two home runs. New York counters with Robert Stock, who is 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA and 2.13 WHIP through eight innings. Stock has allowed 12 hits and five walks while recording eight strikeouts and giving up one home run. The New York sample is limited, but the available numbers give Washington a significant starting pitching advantage entering Friday.

Nationals Bring a Dangerous Offense to Citi Field

Washington has won three of its last five games despite entering Friday on a two-game losing streak. The Nationals dropped consecutive games against Chicago by scores of 12-6 and 8-6 after sweeping three games against Cincinnati. Washington scored 20 runs during that sweep, winning 7-1, 8-2 and 5-3. The Nationals have also been better away from home this season, carrying a 33-27 road record into New York.

The Nationals are batting .252 with a .328 on-base percentage and .441 slugging percentage. Washington has scored 655 runs on 1,056 hits while producing 176 home runs. The pitching staff has been the weaker part of the equation, posting a 4.76 ERA and 1.39 WHIP while opponents are batting .260.

Washington's offense provides a substantial advantage in this matchup. The Nationals have scored 145 more runs than New York while recording 90 more hits and 28 more home runs. Their .441 slugging percentage is also significantly better than New York's .388 mark. The concern is a pitching staff that has allowed 20 runs over the last two games.

Mets Need Their Pitching to Keep Them Competitive

New York has split its last five games with two victories and three losses. The Mets dropped consecutive games against Atlanta by scores of 6-3 and 4-0 after earning victories of 8-5 against Atlanta and 11-1 against Pittsburgh. Their other defeat during the five-game stretch was a 9-0 loss. New York returns home with a disappointing 25-34 record at Citi Field.

The Mets are batting .235 with a .306 on-base percentage and .388 slugging percentage. New York has accumulated 966 hits, 148 home runs and 510 runs. The pitching staff has been considerably better than Washington's, carrying a 4.14 ERA and 1.31 WHIP while holding opponents to a .239 batting average.

New York's best chance comes from its season-long pitching advantage. The Mets own the better team ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average, but their offensive numbers fall well behind Washington across the board. New York has also been inconsistent at the plate recently, scoring three runs or fewer in three of its last five games.

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction

Pick: Washington Nationals Moneyline

Washington is the preferred side in Friday's NL East matchup. The Nationals own the better overall record, have played winning baseball on the road and possess a significant offensive advantage. Washington has scored 145 more runs than New York this season and leads the Mets in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and home runs. The starting pitching numbers also favor the Nationals. Washington's weaker team pitching creates some risk, but there are enough advantages elsewhere to back the Nationals.

Pick: Over 8.5

With no confirmed total available, take the Over if the total is set at 8.5 or lower. Washington has one of the stronger offensive profiles in this matchup, entering with 655 runs, 176 home runs and a .441 slugging percentage. The Nationals have also allowed 20 runs across their last two games and own a 4.76 team ERA. New York's offense has been inconsistent, but Washington's combination of offensive production and vulnerable pitching creates paths to scoring from both sides. At 8.5 or lower, the Over is the preferred total.