Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Sunday, August 16, 2026

The Washington Nationals visit the New York Mets at Citi Field in Queens, New York, on Sunday, August 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 PM ET, with ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV providing television coverage. Washington enters the matchup at 60-64 overall and 33-28 on the road, while New York is 54-69 overall and 26-34 at home. At the time of this writing, the odds were not released. Before making your selections for Sunday’s matchup, check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Jake Irvin is scheduled to start for Washington and enters at 2-6 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.32 WHIP across 65.1 innings. He has allowed 58 hits and 11 home runs while recording 66 strikeouts against 28 walks. New York counters with Christian Scott, who is 3-3 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.30 WHIP through 78.1 innings. He has surrendered 69 hits and seven home runs while recording 98 strikeouts against 33 walks. New York holds the stronger statistical profile in the starting matchup, particularly with a substantially lower ERA, slightly lower WHIP, more strikeouts, and fewer home runs allowed.

Washington's Offense Gives It a Chance

Washington enters Sunday at 60-64 overall but has been considerably better away from home, where it owns a 33-28 record. The Nationals are 2-3 across their last five completed games after losing 4-1 at New York on Friday. Their two victories during that stretch were convincing, beating Chicago 7-0 and Cincinnati 7-1, while their other losses were 12-6 and 8-6 decisions against Chicago.

The Nationals are batting .252 with a .328 on-base percentage and .438 slugging percentage. Washington has scored 663 runs on 1,071 hits while hitting 177 home runs. The pitching staff has struggled by comparison, carrying a 4.72 ERA and 1.38 WHIP while opponents are batting .258. Washington pitching has recorded 941 strikeouts against 433 walks.

Washington's offense is clearly its biggest strength in this matchup. The Nationals have scored 149 more runs than New York and hold substantial advantages in batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, hits, and home runs. The concern is preventing runs. Washington's 4.72 ERA and .258 opponent batting average are significant weaknesses, and Sunday's scheduled starting matchup further increases the pressure on the offense.

New York Looks to Capitalize on Its Pitching Edge

New York enters Sunday at 54-69 overall and has struggled at Citi Field with a 26-34 home record. The Mets have gone 3-2 across their last five completed games after defeating Washington 4-1 on Friday. Their other victories came by scores of 8-5 against Atlanta and 11-1 against Pittsburgh, while they suffered 6-3 and 4-0 losses against Atlanta.

The Mets are batting .235 this season with a .306 on-base percentage and .388 slugging percentage. New York has scored 514 runs on 973 hits while producing 150 home runs. Its pitching staff owns a 4.10 ERA and 1.31 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .238 batting average. The Mets have recorded 1,104 strikeouts while issuing 438 walks.

New York's best path to another victory is its pitching advantage. The Mets have the better team ERA, WHIP, opponent batting average, and strikeout total, and their scheduled starter carries a 3.45 ERA compared with Washington's 5.79 mark. The concern is an offense that has been substantially less productive than Washington over the full season, leaving New York dependent on limiting scoring opportunities.

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Mets Moneyline

New York is the preferred side despite Washington owning the better overall and road records. The difference comes from the scheduled starting matchup. The Mets' starter carries a 3.45 ERA and 1.30 WHIP compared with a 5.79 ERA and 1.32 WHIP for Washington's starter. New York also owns the better season-long team pitching numbers and has won three of its last five completed games. If the Mets can contain Washington's superior offense, their pitching advantage should put them in position to win at home.

Pick: Over 8.5

Take the over if the total is set at 8.5. Washington has scored 663 runs with 177 home runs and a .438 slugging percentage, but its pitching staff carries a 4.72 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The Nationals' scheduled starter also enters with a 5.79 ERA. Washington has been involved in several high-scoring games recently, and the combination of its productive offense and vulnerable pitching makes the over the preferred play at 8.5.

Preview was completed prior to game play on Saturday.