Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Prediction and Picks for Friday, September 19th, 2025
The MLB action continues on Friday with a divisional matchup between the Washington Nationals (62-91) and the New York Mets (79-74), and we’ve got you covered with our Nationals vs. Mets prediction. Below I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 7:10 ET from Citi Field in Queens, NY. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Nationals in the Cellar of the East
The expectations weren’t too high for the Washington Nationals this season, but they were projected to take a step forward with their young core of prospects. That hasn’t happened. Washington is in last place in the National League East at 62-91, and only Colorado (41-112) is worse in the entire N.L. The Nationals are coming off of a four-game sweep at the hands of the Braves (11-3, 6-3, 5-0, 9-4), and they’re now just 2-7 in their last nine games.
Wednesday’s 9-4 defeat to the Braves fell on Clayton Beeter (0.2 IP, 2 ER) in relief. The bullpen, which has been horrible this year, allowed seven runs over 3.2 innings in the contest. Offensively, Dylan Crews led the way, going 2-for-4 with two runs scored and an RBI.
- Washington has yet to announce a starting pitcher for Friday’s series opener.
- Their pitching staff has been a weakness this season, ranking 29th in both ERA (5.33) and opposing batting average (.268).
- As for the bullpen specifically, the Curly W’s are 30th (5.56) and 29th (.268) in those respective categories.
- Washington’s pitching staff is just 33-51 (64.7%) on save opportunities in 2025.
Sign Up for StatSalt News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Mets Hanging on in the Wild Card
The New York Mets have not been playing quality baseball recently, but they’re doing well enough to keep themselves in a playoff position. The Mets are currently 79-74, which puts them in the final wild card spot with a 2.0-game cushion over the Diamondbacks and the Reds. New York is just 3-9 in its last 12 games, but the organization is coming off of a series win against San Diego (W: 8-3, L: 7-4, W: 6-1) in the midweek series. From a sports betting perspective, the Mets are priced at -1100 to make the playoffs and +2000 to win the World Series.
Thursday’s 6-1 victory over the Padres saw Jonah Tong turn in an excellent start. He picked up the win after tossing 5.0 innings with one unearned run and eight strikeouts. Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso both went deep in the 6-1 win.
- Brandon Sproat gets the nod for the Mets on Friday night, and the 25-year-old is gearing up to make his third career start.
- In 12.0 innings pitched, the right-hander has gone 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.
- Sproat last pitched on Saturday against the Rangers, and he blanked them over 6.0 innings, conceding only six hits.
- It was a no-decision in a 3-2 defeat against Texas.
Nationals vs. Mets Pick
Run Line Pick for Nationals vs. Mets
- New York Mets -1.5 (+110) (5 units)
The Nationals are not in good form right now, as they’re on the heels of a four-game sweep against the Braves. They lost all four of those games by 3+ runs. With how poorly they’ve been playing, I don’t mind laying the 1.5 runs with a Mets team that is 3-1 SU in its last four games. All three of their wins during the four-game stretch have come by 3+ runs.
Additionally, New York’s Brandon Sproat (2.25 ERA) has been sharp to start his career, logging two consecutive quality starts in two outings. He draws a matchup against a Nats club that’s just 24th in batting average (.208) and 26th in OPS (.554) over the last seven days. Sproat should perform well enough to put his team in a position to stretch out a multi-run victory.
Over/Under Pick for Nationals vs. Mets
- Over 8.5 (-102) (5 units)
This is an intriguing total from a sports betting perspective, but I do think it’s best to play the over at several 8.5 runs. Washington has scored at least three runs in four out of its last five games. If they can muster up two or three runs on Friday, I think we cruise over this total with relative ease.
The crux of this bet on the over is New York’s offense against Washington's subpar pitching staff. The Nationals have been horrendous on the mound this year, as their bullpen is 30th in ERA (5.56) and 29th in opposing average (.268). Over the last seven days, the Mets are first in home runs (14) and a respectable 14th in OPS (.783). I think this game lands in the 7-3 or 6-3 range, which would be enough to get us to the window to cash the over ticket.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Bet $5 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose
