Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Prediction and Picks for Sunday, September 21st, 2025
The MLB action continues on Sunday with a divisional matchup between the Washington Nationals (63-92) and the New York Mets (80-75), and we’ve got you covered with our Nationals vs. Mets prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 1:40 ET from Citi Field in Queens, NY. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Nationals in the Cellar of the East
The Washington Nationals were expected to take a step forward in 2025 due to their young, budding core, but that hasn’t materialized. Instead, the Curly W’s are one of the worst teams in the Majors. Their record of 63-92 is the second-worst in the National League, where only the Rockies (42-112) are worse. In terms of recent form, the Nationals are just 1-5 in their last six games. They snapped a five-game slide on Saturday, taking down the Mets 5-3 in 11 innings.
Daylen Lile emerged as the hero in Saturday’s 5-3 extra-innings victory. He logged an inside-the-park two-run homer in the 11th, capping off a 2-for-5 day. The DH had three RBI in the win. Cade Cavalli (5.0 IP, 0 ER) was sharp in his start, but it was Sauryn Lao (1.0 IP, 0 ER) who earned the win in relief. PJ Poulin (1.0 IP, 0 ER) slammed the door in the 11th and recorded his first save.
- Jake Irvin gets the nod for the Nationals on Sunday, and the 28-year-old hurler has not been serviceable in 2025.
- The right-hander comes into the series finale at 8-13 with a 5.76 ERA (51st) and a 1.43 WHIP (49th).
- Irvin last pitched on Tuesday against the Braves, and he got touched up for five earned runs on eight hits and two walks over 6.0 innings.
- He took his sixth straight loss in the 6-3 defeat.
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Mets Competing in the Wild Card
Meanwhile, the New York Mets are gunning for a playoff spot, and losing a 5-3 extra-innings contest against the lowly Nationals on Saturday didn’t help their case. The Mets are now 80-75 overall, and that puts them in the final wild card spot in the National League. They have a slight 1.0-game edge over the Reds in the wild-card race. New York is priced at -1100 to make the playoffs, while sitting at +1600 to win the World Series. The Mets are just 4-10 in their last 14 games overall.
Saturday’s 5-3 extra-innings loss to the Nationals ultimately fell on Tyler Rogers, who allowed two runs (one earned) over 1.0 inning in the 11th. Offense was tough to come by, as the Mets scratched across only three runs on 11 hits. Juan Soto led the way, going 2-for-5 with an RBI.
- Sean Manaea will oppose Irvin on Sunday afternoon, and the veteran hurler hasn’t been overpowering this season.
- In 12 appearances (55.0 IP), the left-hander is 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.
- Manaea is coming off of a 5.0-inning appearance against the Padres on Tuesday, where he limited them to one earned run on four hits over 5.0 innings.
- He picked up the win in an 8-3 victory.
Nationals vs. Mets Pick
Run Line Pick for Nationals vs. Mets
- New York Mets -1.5 (-120) (5 units)
Neither of these teams is playing their best baseball at the moment, but considering the high stakes of this game for the Mets, I have to roll with them on the run line.
I am confident in Sean Manaea in this spot. The left-hander is coming off an excellent 5.0-inning outing against the Padres last time out, where he held them to one earned run. Now he’ll take on a Nationals team that’s just 1-5 SU in its last six games. The Nats are averaging only 3.5 runs per game during the six-game stretch. All five of those losses have come by multiple runs. With the way the Mets are swinging the bats combined with Manaea’s solid form, I’ll ride with the Mets are home.
Over/Under Pick for Nationals vs. Mets
- Over 9.0 (+100) (5 units)
As I was alluding to, the Mets have been on fire offensively. They are 4-2 SU in their last six games, averaging 6.3 runs per game during the stretch. Over the last seven days, New York is ranked fourth in both wOBA (.367) and ISO (.233).
The Mets draw a very favorable matchup against a horrendous Nationals pitching staff. Jake Irvin brings in a 5.76 ERA, and Washington’s bullpen is ranked last in both ERA (5.60) and WHIP (1.52). New York could amass nine runs themselves, but I do expect to see Washington put up a few runs as well. I think this one lands in the 8-4 range in favor of the Mets.
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