Atlanta Hawks vs. Indiana Pacers, Preview, Picks and Prediction, Friday, October 31, 2025

By: Daniel Edwards Published 10/31/2025, 10:46 AM ET
Atlanta Hawks vs. Indiana Pacers prediction and picks
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Can the Pacers get their first win on the board this season in Friday's NBA Cup opener? Get the inside line on this all-Eastern Conference matchup with our Hawks vs. Pacers prediction and picks. Tip-off is scheduled for 7.30 pm ET at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse, home of the Pacers.

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Young injury sours win

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) got back on track on Wednesday with a solid win over the Nets to pull back within a game of .500. It came at a big cost, however, as Trae Young was pulled out after just seven minutes of court time with a knee sprain. Young ranked first among NBA players with 11.4 assists per game in 2024-25 while scoring a team-high 24.2 ppg.

Luke Kennard stepped up to fill the void left by Young. The guard racked up 17 points with a pair of assists, shooting 4-5 from deep to help the Hawks to a 117-112 win and end a three-game losing streak. Atlanta's deep bench was key, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker adding 18 points, three rebounds, three assists, two steals, and three blocks, and Onyeka Okongwu putting up a team-high 14 rebounds with 12 points. Jalen Johnson continued his hot start to the year by shooting 10-16 from the field for a total of 23 points. The forward averages 20.5 ppg and 7.0 rebounds through the first five and will need to step up in Young's absence to fire this Hawks offense.

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Pacers nightmare start continues

The high enjoyed by the Indiana Pacers (0-4) on their way to the NBA Finals in June has quickly evaporated. Indiana has started the new season with four straight losses to go right to the lower reaches of the Eastern Conference alongside fellow winless strugglers Brooklyn, most recently going down 114-110 to the Timberwolves and then 107-105 to Dallas.

In both of those most recent reverses, the Pacers have been punished for slow starts after halftime. They were outscored 28-17 by Minnesota and 29-19 by Dallas in the third quarter, in both cases putting the games all but out of reach. Indiana has shot a woeful 24% from the field in those quarters while averaging 18 points. It can at least count on Pascal Siakam, who had another strong outing. The forward led his team with 27 points and 13 rebounds against the Mavs, and through four games averages 26.3 ppg, 11.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists.

This week, Indiana suffered a fresh injury blow when Bennedict Mathurin (toe) was ruled out until at least early November. Mathurin had started the season in great shape with an average of 31.0 ppg before he got hurt against Memphis. Fellow key bench piece Obi Toppin (foot) is also sidelined for at least a month, joining season-long casualty Tyrese Halliburton (Achilles).

Hawks vs. Pacers Pick

Hawks vs. Pacers Spread Pick

  • Atlanta Hawks -2 (5 Units)

Even without Young, Atlanta showed it has depth in its roster in its last outing, and I think that will carry the Hawks through on the road against an Indiana team that is in even worse shape. The loss of Halliburton and now Mathurin and Toppin is too much for the Pacers, whose shooting has been awful so far this season: hitting 40.9% from the field (29th in NBA) and a league-worst 70.3% from the free-throw line. The Hawks took the last two games played between these teams, and I am backing them to make it three in a row and cover a narrow spread.

Take the Hawks.

Hawks vs. Pacers Over/Under Pick

  • Under 231.5 (5 Units)

There are too many key offensive pieces missing on both sides of this matchup to expect a high-scoring total. The Hawks are 2-3 on the over this season and are now without Young, their most reliable scorer, while Indiana has missed the over in all of its last three games. The Pacers' mark of 113.3 points per game ranks 25th in the NBA, while only New Orleans has a worse effective FG% than Indiana's 47.3%.

Take the under.

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