Boston Celtics vs. Portland Trail Blazers Prediction and Picks - December 28, 2025
The Boston Celtics (19-11) visit the Moda Center this Sunday to take on the Portland Trail Blazers (12-19) in a cross-conference matchup of teams on opposite trajectories. Boston arrives in the Pacific Northwest riding a four-game winning streak, headlined by a dominant 140-122 win over Indiana on Friday. Meanwhile, the Blazers are struggling through a three-game home skid, most recently falling 119-103 to the Clippers. While the Celtics are without MVP candidate Jayson Tatum, they have successfully pivoted to a "Jaylen Brown-centric" attack that has kept them firmly in the Eastern Conference's top three.
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Boston Celtics: The Jaylen Brown Show
With Jayson Tatum sidelined (Achilles), Jaylen Brown has elevated his game to an elite level. Brown has scored at least 30 points in all eight of his appearances this December, averaging 32.1 points per game this month. He is currently 6th in the NBA in scoring (29.4 PPG) and has developed into one of the league's most effective players on drives. Support has come from Derrick White (18.3 PPG) and Payton Pritchard (17.2 PPG), both of whom have seen increased usage in Tatum's absence.
Defensively, the Celtics remain elite, ranking 2nd in the NBA by allowing just 110.4 points per game. Their ability to switch on the perimeter and protect the rim—even with a rotating cast of bigs—should pose a significant challenge for a Portland offense that has struggled with consistency and turnovers during their recent losing streak.
Portland Trail Blazers: Deni Avdija’s All-Star Push
The brightest spot in a difficult season for Portland has been the emergence of Deni Avdija. Avdija is enjoying a career year, leading the Blazers with 25.6 points per game and acting as the team's primary playmaker (6.6 APG). However, the supporting cast around him is decimated by injuries. Portland will be without Jrue Holiday (calf), Jerami Grant (Achilles), and Robert Williams III (injury management) for tonight's contest, leaving a massive void in both veteran leadership and defensive grit.
The Blazers' defensive metrics are concerning, as they rank 25th in the league, surrendering 120.5 points per game. Rookie center Donovan Clingan has been a force on the boards (10.3 RPG), but he will be tested by a Boston team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in 3-pointers made. If Portland cannot close out on shooters and limit Boston's second-chance opportunities, they risk another double-digit home loss.
Expert Picks and Predictions
Trail Blazers vs Celtics ATS Pick
- Boston Celtics -6.5
I am laying the points with the Celtics. Despite being without Tatum, Boston is 7-4 against the spread (ATS) this season when favored by 6.5 or more. More importantly, they are facing a Portland team missing four of its top six rotation players (Holiday, Grant, Williams III, and Henderson). The Celtics have won six straight meetings against the Blazers, and given the massive disparity in defensive efficiency (Boston's #2 defense vs. Portland's #25), the Celtics should be able to pull away in the second half.
Celtics vs Trail Blazers Total Pick
- Over 228.5
I am leaning toward the Over in this matchup. Portland’s games have hit the over in 58.1% of their contests this season, largely because their defensive rotations are often compromised by injuries. Boston’s offense has been explosive recently, scoring 140 points in their last outing, and they make more threes per game (15.7) than almost any team in the league. With Deni Avdija likely to see high volume for Portland, this game has the makings of a 120-112 finish, pushing it comfortably past the total.
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