Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Prediction for Wednesday November 4 2026

Cleveland gets another shot at Oklahoma City on Wednesday night, this time at Paycom Center. Tipoff is at 8 PM ET, and the Cavaliers probably aren’t thrilled about seeing the Thunder again so soon. Oklahoma City went into Cleveland on Monday and came away with a 117-112 win. Now the Cavaliers have to try to return the favor on the road. The Thunder are favored by 2.5 points, with the total at 227.5. For more basketball predictions, check out our free NBA picks.

Cleveland Cavaliers Get Another Crack at the Thunder

Cleveland is 4-2 after Monday’s loss, and I wouldn’t say the Cavaliers played badly. They scored 112 points and were right there until the end. The problem was stopping Oklahoma City when it mattered. The Thunder got 43 points from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and that’s a tough number to overcome when you’re playing a team that knows how to finish close games.

The Cavaliers had scored 136 against Milwaukee in their previous game, so the offense isn’t exactly broken. What I’d like to see is Cleveland do a better job of controlling the pace. Oklahoma City is comfortable playing a slower game, and the Cavaliers can’t afford to spend long stretches taking difficult shots late in the clock. They need to get the ball moving and make the Thunder defend more than one action.

Here’s why I wouldn’t completely dismiss Cleveland. Oklahoma City is dealing with several important injuries, including Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. That’s a lot of talent missing, particularly on the defensive side. Cleveland has the size to make the Thunder work around the basket, and I’d expect the Cavaliers to make some adjustments after seeing them Monday. Whether those adjustments are enough is another question.

Oklahoma City Thunder Have the Better Recent Result

Oklahoma City is 5-2, and the Thunder have already shown they can beat Cleveland. That’s worth something, especially when the rematch is on their own floor. Monday wasn’t a blowout, but Oklahoma City made enough plays down the stretch to win by five. The Thunder also needed that victory after losing 119-98 to Houston on Saturday.

The injuries are the one thing that makes me nervous about backing Oklahoma City. Holmgren, Williams, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace were among the players listed out in the early report. That’s not a minor issue. The Thunder are asking other guys to take on more responsibility, and eventually that can catch up with a team. Cleveland certainly has enough talent to take advantage.

But Oklahoma City has something I trust in this matchup. It can win without turning the game into a track meet. The Thunder have been playing at one of the slower paces in the league, and that helps when you’re missing some important pieces. If they can keep Cleveland from getting easy baskets and make this another possession-by-possession game, I like their chances.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Prediction

Spread Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5

I’m laying the 2.5 with Oklahoma City. I know Cleveland is going to make adjustments, and the Thunder’s injuries are a legitimate concern. But we just watched these teams play, and Oklahoma City found a way to win on Cleveland’s floor. Now the Thunder get the rematch at home. That’s enough to push me their way. Cleveland can absolutely win this game if it controls the paint, but I trust Oklahoma City a little more when things get tight late. I’ll take the Thunder to win by more than a basket.

Total Pick: Under 227.5

Give me the under 227.5. Monday’s game finished with 229 points, so I know we’re asking for a slightly different result. But rematches can be interesting because both teams have just seen what worked and what didn’t. I expect Cleveland to spend more time trying to limit Oklahoma City’s scoring opportunities, and the Thunder have been comfortable playing at a slower pace anyway. With Oklahoma City missing some offensive help, I don’t see a reason to expect another big scoring night automatically. The danger is Cleveland getting hot from outside, but I think this one finishes a little lower than Monday’s meeting.

Final Picks: Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 | Under 227.5