Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, October 21, 2026
Wednesday night's game at Toyota Center brings together two Texas rivals with different expectations for the new season. Dallas makes the short trip to Houston, with tipoff at 8:30 pm ET. The Mavericks are hoping to turn things around after a 26-56 season that left them 12th in the Western Conference and out of the playoffs. Houston had a much better year, winning 52 games and finishing fifth in the West before the Lakers knocked the Rockets out in the first round. Dallas went 1-3 in the preseason, while Houston finished 2-1. Cash in with a winner using our free NBA picks.
Dallas Mavericks Have a New Look
Dallas has turned the page after a tough season, with Cooper Flagg at the center of what comes next. The young forward had a strong rookie year, but he won't have to do everything himself. Kyrie Irving is back after missing last season with an injury, giving Flagg a proven guard for tight games. There are new faces off the court too. Masai Ujiri now runs basketball operations, and Dusty May takes over as head coach after winning a national championship at Michigan. It's a lot of change, but Dallas needed a new direction.
One problem last year was what happened when the Mavericks couldn't score quickly. Dallas posted a 64.1% effective field goal percentage in the first six seconds of possessions, but that dropped to 52.7% afterward. Irving should help when opponents force a half-court game. Zaccharie Risacher also gets a fresh chance after arriving from Atlanta. Up front, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II are joined by Santi Aldama and rookie Morez Johnson Jr. Dallas has options inside, but May still needs to decide how to share the minutes.
Injuries: Tarik Biberovic, Jett Howard, Dereck Lively II and Santi Aldama are game-time decisions.
Houston Rockets Look to Go Further in the Playoffs
Houston doesn't have to rebuild. The Rockets won 52 games last season and have enough talent to challenge the West's best teams. What they haven't managed is a long playoff run. For the second straight year, they went out in the first round, this time against the Lakers. Kevin Durant remains a major part of the offense, and Alperen Sengun gives Houston another way to attack. Fred VanVleet is returning after missing a season through injury. Getting him back should take pressure off the other ball handlers.
The Rockets have been tough around the basket. They grabbed 54.5% of available rebounds last season, the best mark in the league. Amen Thompson has earned a five-year extension and is a strong defender, although his outside shot needs work. Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason provide size, while newcomer Bogdan Bogdanovic gives Houston another shooter. Marcus Smart was added as well. The pieces are here for another good season. The question is whether better shooting and VanVleet's return can help Houston avoid another early playoff exit.
Injuries: No Houston injuries were listed in the supplied report.
Key To The Game
Dallas needs Irving to keep the offense moving when transition chances disappear. Houston has an edge on the glass, and the Mavericks must keep Sengun and the Rockets from getting second chances.
Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets Pick
- Houston Rockets -7.5
Houston has the stronger foundation after winning 52 games last season, and Durant and Sengun give the Rockets scoring options Dallas will have to contain. VanVleet's return should help their offense settle in. The Mavericks have Irving back too, but they're adjusting to a new coach and several roster changes. Houston also brings a strong rebounding edge into the matchup. The Rockets should cover the 7.5-point spread at home Wednesday.
Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets Over/Under Pick
- Under 229.5
Dallas should look better offensively with Irving back alongside Flagg, but the Mavericks are still learning a new system under May. Houston has Durant and Sengun, yet VanVleet is returning after a full season away. The Rockets can control possessions with their rebounding, which could limit second chances for Dallas. With both teams working through changes in their opening game, under 229.5 points is the play here.