Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Picks and Prediction for Monday October 26 2026
In Monday night NBA action, the Dallas Mavericks will travel to the Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat. This battle will get started at 7:30 pm EST on October 26, 2026. The game will be televised on NBA TV and can be streamed on NBA League Pass. The Heat are an 8.5 point home favorite and the total as of writing is 233.5. Be ready for all of this season's NBA action with our free NBA picks.
Dallas playing without Flagg
The Dallas Mavericks have missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons and are committed to building around former number one overall draft pick Cooper Flagg. The Mavericks (1-2) dropped 30 of 40 road games a season ago and are giving up 118.3 points per game. On Saturday, Dallas was outscored by 13 points over the final 12 minutes during a 122-106 home loss versus San Antonio.
Rookie F Sergio de Larrea led six Dallas players in double figures with 21 points on 9-for-15 shooting in 33 minutes off the bench. C Daniel Gafford contributed 12 points (6-9 FG), nine rebounds, three steals, and two blocks. Marcus Sasser added 12 points (5-9 FG) and five assists for the Mavericks.
Last season, the Mavericks ranked in the bottom four of the league in offensive efficiency and averaged 114.1 points per game. During Saturday’s loss, Dallas assisted on 29 of 45 made field goals and shot 51 percent overall. The Mavericks committed 21 turnovers, which led to 26 San Antonio points.
Miami struggling on offense
The Miami Heat have qualified for the playoffs in seven of the previous ten seasons and have not won a playoff series since advancing to the NBA Finals in 2023. The Heat (0-3) traded for two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo in the offseason, but it remains to be seen if they have enough depth to be a serious title contender. On Saturday, Miami trailed by as many as 23 points during a 115-110 road loss against Charlotte.
Davion Mitchell led six Miami players in double figures with 22 points (8-13 FG) and ten assists. Talented C Bam Adebayo scored 20 points on 8-for-17 from the floor and pulled down eight boards. Giannis Antetokounmpo added 14 points (4-11 FG) before fouling out in just 25 minutes of action.
Miami played at the fastest tempo in the league a season ago, but are currently 18th in that category. The Heat will need some time to gel on the offensive end of the floor and rank 26th in efficiency. During Saturday’s loss, Miami converted 23 of 25 free-throw attempts and shot 43 percent from the field.
Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Picks and Prediction
Pick: Miami Heat -8.5
Dallas F Cooper Flagg suffered a mild left shoulder sprain and will be re-evaluated sometime this week. This has been an even series over the years and these two teams each defended home court last season. Miami has been one of the best defensive teams under head coach Erik Spoelstra, but are currently 29th in defensive efficiency. Look for the Heat to turn up the intensity and cover at home.
Pick: Under 233.5
With Giannis Antetokounmpo playing the point forward position, the Heat have predictably been playing at a slower tempo. Miami is 18th in pace and Dallas ranks 24th in that category. The two meetings last season averaged 217 points. The Mavericks will struggle to score without Flagg and this game will stay under the total.
Final Score Prediction: Miami Heat win 120-106