Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks and Prediction for Thursday November 12 2026

Dallas heads to Minnesota on Thursday night for an 8 PM ET game at Target Center. The Mavericks have been playing some pretty good basketball, but the Timberwolves have been even better at home. Minnesota has also been defending at a higher level, which is what interests me most about this matchup. Dallas has enough offense to make things uncomfortable, especially if Minnesota’s injury problems continue. But I like the Timberwolves at home. The betting line wasn’t independently verified from a U.S.-licensed sportsbook when this article was completed. Be ready for all the NBA action with our free NBA picks.

Dallas Has Been Getting the Job Done Offensively

Dallas is 7-4 and has gone 2-2 on the road. The Mavericks beat Indiana 125-122 on Monday, and they absolutely hammered Brooklyn 130-93 the night before. That’s 255 points in two games. The offense has been getting good looks, and Dallas has been taking advantage when opponents leave shooters open. Minnesota is going to make that much harder.

The Mavericks are averaging 114.9 points per game and allowing 110.3. That’s a positive scoring difference, and it’s one reason they’ve been winning. Dallas has been shooting well enough to keep pressure on opponents, but the defense hasn’t been as strong as Minnesota’s. The Mavericks need to protect the ball and avoid giving the Timberwolves easy transition baskets. Minnesota has been scoring more than 118 a night, so Dallas can’t afford too many empty possessions.

Dallas has been getting production from several spots in the lineup, which is encouraging. The Mavericks need their primary ballhandlers to create good shots without forcing things against Minnesota’s defense. That’s going to be the challenge. Dallas can beat the Timberwolves if it shoots well from outside and keeps the rebounding battle close. But the Mavericks aren’t going to get the same easy looks they enjoyed against Brooklyn.

Minnesota Has Been Winning with Balance

Minnesota is 8-3 and has won four of five home games. The Timberwolves beat Utah 115-100 on Sunday and New Orleans 115-109 on Friday. Those weren’t spectacular offensive performances, but they were good, solid wins. Minnesota has been getting enough scoring while making opponents work for their points. That’s the kind of basketball I trust.

The Timberwolves are averaging 118.1 points per game and allowing only 107. That’s an 11.1-point scoring advantage, one of the best in the league. Minnesota has been defending the paint well and doing a good job limiting easy baskets. Dallas has enough offensive talent to score against anybody, but the Mavericks haven’t faced many defenses playing as well as Minnesota’s.

Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo have been listed unavailable, which is a serious concern for Minnesota’s backcourt. The Timberwolves need their healthy guards to take care of the ball and make smart decisions. Minnesota also needs strong work on the boards. Dallas has been playing well, and the Wolves can’t afford to give the Mavericks a bunch of second chances. The defense has to carry more of the load if the offense is missing important pieces.

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks and Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves

I’m taking Minnesota. Dallas has been playing well, and those 255 points over two games are impressive. But Brooklyn and Indiana aren’t defending the way Minnesota has been. The Timberwolves are allowing only 107 a night, and they’ve been tough to beat at home. The injuries make me nervous, particularly in the backcourt. Still, I like Minnesota’s defense and rebounding enough to take the Wolves in a close game.

Total Pick: Under — Pending Verified Line

I lean under. Minnesota has been allowing only 107 points per game, and Dallas is giving up about 110. Both teams can score, so this isn’t going to be a comfortable under if the outside shots are falling. But the Timberwolves have been playing good defense, and their injuries could take away some offensive firepower. Dallas just scored 125 against Indiana, but I don’t expect the Mavericks to get those same opportunities Thursday. I’d consider the under if the total opens high enough to give us some room.

Final Picks: Minnesota Timberwolves Moneyline | Under (pending verified total)

Disclaimer: Completed November 11, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, and starting lineups may change before tipoff.