Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Picks, and Odds Movement for December 22 2025
Dallas vs New Orleans picks are front and center for bettors digging through Monday’s slate of NBA picks and NBA predictions, as these Southwest Division rivals meet for the third time this season with the market tightening toward a near pickem.
TLDR - Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Dallas +1
- Total Pick: Under 237
- Projected Final Score: Dallas 118, New Orleans 114
Stats to Know and Betting Trends for Dallas vs New Orleans
- Dallas and New Orleans have split the first two meetings this season.
- Both prior meetings stayed under the closing total.
- New Orleans has covered nine of its last ten games.
- New Orleans has won four straight games.
- Five of Dallas’ last six games have gone over the total.
- Both teams are on the front end of a back-to-back.
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas | +1 (-110) | Over 237 (-110) |
| New Orleans | -1 (-110) | Under 237 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Dallas | New Orleans |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/22 | 06:39AM | -1 (-106) | +1 (-114) |
| 12/22 | 06:14AM | -1 (-114) | +1 (-106) |
| 12/22 | 06:08AM | -1 (-112) | +1 (-108) |
| 12/21 | 08:32PM | +1.5 (-114) | -1.5 (-106) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/22 | 08:35AM | 239.5 (-118) | 239.5 (-104) |
| 12/22 | 06:17AM | 237.5 (-114) | 237.5 (-106) |
| 12/21 | 08:35PM | 237.5 (-108) | 237.5 (-112) |
Dallas vs New Orleans Game Preview and Analysis
This matchup sits in an interesting betting window after Dallas and New Orleans split their first two meetings of the season, with both contests finishing under the total. The familiarity factor matters here, especially with these teams seeing each other for the third time in less than two months.
New Orleans enters playing some of its best basketball of the season, winning four straight games and covering nine of its last ten. The Pelicans are coming off a convincing 19-point win over Indiana and have consistently exceeded market expectations during this stretch. Their defensive consistency has allowed them to control game flow, even when offensive efficiency dips.
Dallas is trending in the opposite direction results-wise after a road loss in Philadelphia, but the underlying offensive metrics have improved. Five of the Mavericks’ last six games have gone over the total, and they have shown better spacing and scoring balance over the past two weeks. That improvement matters in a game where the spread has collapsed toward a pickem.
Injuries and availability loom large. Max Christie, Klay Thompson, and Cooper Flagg are all listed as questionable for Dallas, while Herbert Jones is questionable for New Orleans. Flagg’s status is particularly important. The Rookie of the Year favorite is averaging 18.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game and turns 19 years old on Sunday. Only LeBron James and Kobe Bryant scored more points than Flagg before turning 19, and his presence significantly raises Dallas’ offensive ceiling.
Both teams are on the front end of a back-to-back, which can subtly affect pace and late-game decisions. Dallas hosts Denver on Tuesday, while New Orleans travels to Cleveland. That scheduling spot slightly favors Dallas, especially if Flagg is cleared, as the Mavericks may be more willing to empty the tank here.
Key Injuries and Notes for DAL and NO
- DAL: Max Christie is questionable.
- DAL: Klay Thompson is questionable.
- DAL: Cooper Flagg is questionable.
- NO: Herbert Jones is questionable.
Final Score Prediction
Dallas 118, New Orleans 114
ATS and Total Picks
- ATS Pick: Dallas +1
- Total Pick: Under 237