Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction and Picks - December 5, 2025
Use Code SSWC Friday night NBA action within the Western Conference, and we have a Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction locked and loaded for you. The Mavericks check in at 8-18 on the year, but they have won three games in a row, including a 118-108 home win over Miami in their last game. OKC has the league's best record at 21-1, and they are off a 124-112 road win over San Antonio. These teams met back in October, and the Thunder won that game on the road by a score of 101-94. Read on to see our Mavericks vs Thunder prediction.
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Mavs Grab Big Home Win Against The Heat
Dallas’ most recent game was a 118–108 win over the Miami Heat on December 3, where Cooper Flagg scored 22 points and Anthony Davis added 17 points with 17 rebounds to extend the Mavericks’ first winning streak of the season to three games. Ryan Nembhard chipped in 13 assists, and Dallas shot 50.5% from the field while hitting 16 threes, showing a rare burst of offensive efficiency.
On the season, Dallas has struggled offensively, ranking last in the league at 106.3 points per game (30th). Their shooting numbers reflect the inconsistency, hitting 45.2% from the field (24th) and just 33.6% from three (28th). Despite those shortcomings, the Mavericks have found ways to stay competitive thanks to Davis’ presence inside and Flagg’s emergence as a reliable scorer. They rebound well at 44.9 per game (14th), and their ball movement has improved recently, with Nembhard settling into a playmaking role.
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Defensively, Dallas has been one of the league’s best, allowing just 111 points per game (4th) and holding opponents to 45.6% shooting (6th). Their perimeter defense has been elite, limiting opponents to 32.6% from three (1st), and they rank second in opponent free‑throw percentage at 76.3%. That defensive backbone has kept them afloat despite offensive struggles, and it will be critical against Oklahoma City’s high‑powered attack.
Oklahoma City Can't Be Stopped
Oklahoma City’s last game was a 124–112 win over the Golden State Warriors on December 2, where Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander scored 38 points and Chet Holmgren added 21 points with eight rebounds. The Thunder pulled away late, extending their winning streak to 13 games and improving to 21–1 on the season.
The Thunder have been dominant offensively, averaging 122.3 points per game (2nd) while shooting 49.1% from the field (5th) and 36.6% from three (10th). Gilgeous‑Alexander has been unstoppable, averaging nearly 33 points per game, while Jalen Williams has provided consistent secondary scoring at 22 points per night. Holmgren’s efficiency inside and ability to stretch the floor make them even tougher to guard. They also excel at the free‑throw line, hitting 83.7% (2nd), and rebound solidly at 44.8 per game (15th).
Defensively, Oklahoma City has been the best team in the league, allowing just 107 points per game (1st) and holding opponents to 42.4% shooting (1st). Their perimeter defense is more vulnerable at 36.8% allowed from three (22nd), but their overall discipline and ability to force turnovers have made them nearly unbeatable. With Gilgeous‑Alexander leading the charge and the Thunder thriving at home, they’ll look to extend their dominance against a Dallas team that relies heavily on defense to stay competitive.
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Pick
Mavericks vs Thunder Spread Pick
- Dallas +15 (4 Units)
Dallas +15 has real appeal because the Mavericks have quietly leaned into their defensive identity, and that travels well against a powerhouse like Oklahoma City. Even in their 118–108 win over Miami, they showed how their defense can dictate tempo, holding the Heat to just 44% shooting while Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis provided enough offense to keep them ahead. On the season, Dallas allows only 111 points per game (4th) and leads the league in opponent three‑point percentage at 32.6%, which is exactly the kind of profile you want when facing a Thunder team that thrives on perimeter efficiency. Getting double‑digit points with a team that can slow possessions and force OKC into half‑court sets makes the spread attractive.
The Thunder have been dominant, no question, but their style leaves room for a disciplined defensive team to hang around. Oklahoma City averages 122.3 points per game (2nd) and shoots nearly 49.1% from the field (5th), yet their perimeter defense is vulnerable, allowing 36.8% from three (22nd). That opens the door for Dallas to steal momentum with timely shooting, especially if Flagg and Nembhard can stretch the floor. Add in Davis’ rebounding presence against Holmgren, and the Mavericks have the tools to grind this into a slower, more physical contest. With their defense and rebounding keeping them competitive, Dallas +15 feels like value, as they’re built to cover big numbers even against elite opponents.
Mavericks vs Thunder Over/Under Pick
- Under 228 (5 Units)
The Under 128 makes sense because Dallas has been the league’s lowest‑scoring team at just 106.3 points per game (30th), and they rely almost entirely on defense to stay competitive. Their ability to slow pace is elite, holding opponents to 111 points per game (4th) and ranking 1st in opponent three‑point percentage at 32.6%, which directly counters Oklahoma City’s perimeter attack. The Thunder, while explosive at 122.3 points per game (2nd), also own the league’s best defense, allowing only 107 points per game (1st) and limiting opponents to 42.4% shooting (1st). With both teams built to grind possessions and Dallas struggling to score consistently, this matchup profiles as a defensive battle where points come at a premium, making the Under 128 a sharp angle.
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