Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs Picks and Prediction for Wednesday November 4 2026
Dallas makes the short trip to San Antonio on Wednesday night for a 9:30 PM ET game against the Spurs at Frost Bank Center. The Mavericks are 4-3 after losing to Sacramento on Monday, while San Antonio is 5-2 and coming off a comfortable win over Utah. The Spurs are favored by 12.5 points, with the total at 229.5. That’s a pretty big number for a game between two teams with winning records, but San Antonio has already beaten Dallas once this season. Check out our free NBA picks for more predictions.
Dallas Mavericks Have Been Better Than Monday’s Result
Dallas lost 115-100 to Sacramento on Monday, and that was a disappointing performance considering the Mavericks had won three straight before it. They beat Houston 116-111, Oklahoma City 120-96, and Miami 113-109. Those aren’t bad wins. Dallas has shown it can compete with good teams, even if the Sacramento game didn’t look particularly encouraging.
Here’s what makes this matchup interesting. Dallas already played San Antonio on October 24 and lost 122-106. That’s a 16-point defeat, and the Mavericks certainly don’t want a repeat. But they’ve also improved since that game. Beating Oklahoma City by 24 and getting past Houston tells me Dallas isn’t a team you can just dismiss because it’s playing on the road.
The concern is whether the Mavericks can handle San Antonio’s size and defensive pressure. Dallas needs to avoid getting pushed around inside and giving the Spurs second chances. That’s where games can get away from you. If the Mavericks can hold their own on the glass and avoid long scoring droughts, I think they’ve got a chance to make this considerably closer than the first meeting.
San Antonio Spurs Have Been Tough to Handle
San Antonio is 5-2 after beating Utah 119-97 on Monday. The Spurs also beat Minnesota 121-111 on Saturday, so they’ve put together a couple of good offensive performances. They scored 122 against Dallas in their first meeting, too. That’s three games against these opponents where San Antonio has reached at least 119 points.
What I like about the Spurs is that they don’t have to rely entirely on outside shooting to score. They’ve got the size to attack the paint, and that creates problems for teams that can’t match up physically. Dallas found that out in the first meeting. San Antonio can also make life difficult defensively, which is why the Mavericks can’t afford to get careless with the basketball.
But 12.5 points? That’s where I start having some questions. The Spurs have been good, but Dallas isn’t Utah. The Mavericks have already beaten Houston and Oklahoma City, and those wins count for something. San Antonio should be favored at home. I just don’t know that the difference between these teams is quite as large as the spread suggests.
Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick: Dallas Mavericks +12.5
Give me Dallas and the points. I’m not saying the Mavericks are going to win this game. San Antonio has the better matchup inside, and the Spurs already beat Dallas by 16 earlier this season. But that was one game. Since then, the Mavericks have beaten Oklahoma City by 24 and picked up a win over Houston. That’s enough to make me think they can hang around. San Antonio probably wins, but asking the Spurs to cover nearly two touchdowns against a Dallas team that’s shown some fight is a little much for me.
Total Pick: Under 229.5
I’m taking the under 229.5. The first meeting finished with 228 points, and four of Dallas’ last five games have stayed below this number. San Antonio has been scoring well, but the Spurs have also shown they can make opponents work for their baskets. I expect Dallas to put more emphasis on slowing things down after giving up 122 in the first meeting. The biggest concern is San Antonio getting another big offensive night and pushing Dallas into a faster game. But I think the Mavericks make this more physical, and the scoring stays a little lower.
Final Picks: Dallas Mavericks +12.5 | Under 229.5