Denver Nuggets vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction and Picks - December 5, 2025
NBA action on Friday evening, and we have a Denver Nuggets vs Atlanta Hawks prediction locked and loaded for you. Denver checks in at 15-6 on the year, and they are off a solid 135-120 road win over Indiana. The Hawks are off a 115-92 home loss to the Clippers, and that drops them to 13-10 on the year. The Nuggets have won the last five games in this series. Read on to see our Nuggets vs Hawks prediction.
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Murray Hangs 52 On The Pacers
Denver’s most recent game was a 135–120 win over the Indiana Pacers on December 3, where Jamal Murray erupted for a season‑high 52 points, hitting 10 of 11 from three, while Nikola Jokic added 24 points, eight rebounds, and 13 assists. That performance came just two nights after a tough 131–121 loss to Dallas, and it was a reminder of how dangerous Denver’s offense can be when Murray and Jokic are both rolling.
The Nuggets have been the league’s most explosive team, averaging 124.6 points per game (1st) while shooting 51.2% from the field (2nd) and 39.7% from three (2nd). Jokic continues to play at an MVP level, averaging nearly 29 points with over 12 rebounds and 11 assists per game, while Murray has been equally lethal, especially from deep. Denver’s supporting cast, including Spencer Jones and Peyton Watson, has provided timely scoring, and their ability to spread the floor makes them nearly impossible to defend. Their free‑throw shooting has also been elite at 83.2% (4th), giving them efficiency across all phases of the offense.
Defensively, Denver has been solid, allowing 115.9 points per game (17th) but holding opponents to 46.4% shooting (9th) and just 33.8% from three (5th). Their rebounding has been strong at 42.1 per game (7th), and Jokic’s presence in the paint continues to anchor their defensive schemes. The Nuggets have won eight of their last nine meetings against Atlanta, and with their offense firing on all cylinders, they’ll look to extend that dominance on the road.
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Hawks Routed by The Clippers At Home
Atlanta’s last game was a 115–92 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on December 3, where Nickeil Alexander‑Walker led the Hawks with 21 points, but Jalen Johnson sat out with calf tightness and Kristaps Porzingis missed his fourth straight game due to illness. Without their top scorer and playmaker, the Hawks struggled to find rhythm, shooting just 38% from the field and committing 11 turnovers in the first half.
The Hawks average 116.9 points per game (18th) while shooting 48.1% from the field (10th) and 36.7% from three (10th). Johnson has been their breakout star this season, averaging 23.2 points, 10 rebounds, and 7.3 assists, while Alexander‑Walker has stepped up with a career‑best 20.4 points per game. Dyson Daniels has provided energy in the backcourt, and Porzingis, when healthy, adds a versatile scoring option inside and out. Atlanta’s offense thrives when they can push tempo, but without Trae Young, who remains sidelined with a knee injury, their spacing and playmaking have been inconsistent.
Defensively, Atlanta allows 115.8 points per game (15th) and opponents to shoot 46.4% (11th), but they’ve been strong against the three, holding teams to 34% (6th). Their rebounding has been solid at 46.3 per game (22nd), and Onyeka Okongwu has provided rim protection. Still, the Hawks have dropped two straight and face a Denver team that punishes defensive lapses. If Johnson can return, Atlanta will have a fighting chance to keep pace, but without him, they’ll need Alexander‑Walker and Daniels to carry the scoring load against the league’s top offense.
Denver Nuggets vs Atlanta Hawks Pick
Nuggets vs Hawks Spread Pick
- Denver -8 (5 Units)
Denver -8 looks like the right side because the Nuggets are simply playing at another level offensively, averaging a league‑best 124.6 points per game while shooting 51.2% from the field and nearly 40% from three. Jamal Murray’s 52‑point explosion against Indiana showed how dangerous this team can be when he gets hot, and Nikola Jokic continues to put up MVP‑caliber numbers with his nightly triple‑double production. Denver’s balance is what makes them so tough to guard — they can punish you inside with Jokic and Graham, spread the floor with shooters, and run in transition off rebounds. With their efficiency and depth, the Nuggets have consistently covered numbers like this against mid‑tier defenses, and Atlanta’s recent struggles make this matchup favorable.
The Hawks, meanwhile, have dropped two straight and are missing key pieces, including Trae Young, which has left them relying heavily on Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander‑Walker to carry the scoring load. Atlanta averages 116.9 points per game, but their defense has been shaky, allowing 115.8 points per game and opponents to shoot 46.4% from the field. That’s a dangerous recipe against Denver’s high‑octane offense. Even if Johnson returns, the Hawks’ lack of depth and inconsistency on the boards (41.5 rebounds per game, 26th) put them at a disadvantage against a Nuggets team that ranks top‑three in rebounding. With Denver’s firepower and Atlanta’s defensive vulnerabilities, laying the -8 feels justified as the Nuggets should control this game from start to finish.
Nuggets vs Hawks Over/Under Pick
- Under 236.5 (4 Units)
The Under 236.5 looks like the sharper angle because while Denver leads the league in scoring at 124.6 points per game, they also defend at a top‑10 level, holding opponents to 46.4% shooting and just 33.8% from three (5th). Atlanta averages 116.9 points per game, but their offense has been inconsistent without Trae Young, and they’ve struggled to rebound (41.5 per game, 26th) which limits second‑chance scoring. Both teams sit around the middle of the pack defensively in points allowed, yet their efficiency in half‑court sets and Denver’s ability to control pace through Jokic often keeps totals from ballooning. With the Hawks missing key playmakers and Denver’s defense capable of tightening up late, this matchup sets up better for a controlled, efficient game rather than a track meet, making the Under 236.5 a solid play.
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