Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers Picks and Prediction for Saturday November 7 2026

Denver and Indiana are taking their game south of the border Saturday. Tipoff is 5 PM ET at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, with the Pacers technically serving as the home team. That’s worth pointing out because Indiana won’t have its usual home-court advantage. The Nuggets just beat Toronto by 19, while the Pacers finally snapped a five-game losing streak against Memphis. Denver has the better roster available right now, although I’m not sure this is the automatic blowout some people might expect.

Denver Nuggets Have the Better Offensive Options

Denver is 4-3 after beating Toronto 128-109 on Wednesday. The Nuggets needed that one after losing 118-110 to Portland on Monday. They’ve been a little uneven so far, which is surprising considering how much talent they’ve got. Still, putting 128 on Toronto was a good reminder of what this offense can do when the ball is moving.

Denver is scoring 115.4 points per game and allowing 114.7. That’s a pretty small difference for a team with championship ambitions. The Nuggets are shooting 49% from the floor, though, and that’s where I see the advantage against Indiana. Denver can get quality shots without having to force the issue. The defense has been another story. Giving up almost 115 a night leaves the door open for teams that can score.

Jamal Murray has been averaging 27.3 points and shooting better than 51% from three through six appearances. Nikola Jokic is putting up 22 points, 9.7 rebounds, and nine assists. Those are the two guys Indiana has to worry about. Julian Strawther and Spencer Jones are out, while DeMar DeRozan’s back needs another check. Denver isn’t completely healthy, but its two biggest offensive pieces are available.

Indiana Pacers Are Running Short on Healthy Bodies

Indiana is 3-6 after beating Memphis 107-103 on Wednesday. That victory ended five straight losses, including a 108-104 defeat against Atlanta and a 98-90 loss to Brooklyn. The Pacers have been having trouble finishing games, and now they’re facing a Denver team that can punish mistakes pretty quickly.

Indiana is averaging 111.2 points and allowing 114.2. The Pacers are shooting 46.5% from the floor and only 32.8% from three. That’s not terrible overall, but it isn’t enough to scare Denver unless Indiana gets more consistent perimeter scoring. The Pacers have also been turning the ball over nearly 16 times a game. Give the Nuggets that many extra opportunities, and things can get ugly.

Pascal Siakam has been carrying the scoring load at 21.4 points per game, while Andrew Nembhard is averaging 18.5 points and 7.3 assists. The trouble is the injury list. Tyrese Haliburton is out with a hamstring problem after averaging 21.8 points and 9.5 assists in his first four games. T.J. McConnell and Ben Sheppard are also out, and Kelly Oubre Jr.‘s availability is uncertain. That’s a lot of missing help against Denver.

Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers Picks and Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Denver Nuggets

I’m going with Denver. Indiana deserves credit for winning in Memphis, and the neutral court makes this a little different from a normal road game. But the Pacers are missing too much playmaking. Denver has Murray scoring 27 a night and Jokic nearly averaging a triple-double, and Indiana has been giving up 114 points per game. I can see the Pacers hanging around if they shoot well early. Over 48 minutes, though, I trust Denver’s offense more. Give me the Nuggets, provided the moneyline isn’t priced beyond reason.

Total Pick: Over 225.5 Points

I’d play over 225.5 if that number is available. Denver is averaging 115.4 points, Indiana 111.2, and neither defense has been especially difficult to score against. The Nuggets should get good looks inside, and Indiana has enough offense to contribute even without its full backcourt. The concern is the unusual setting in Mexico City. Travel and altitude could affect shooting or pace. But both teams have been allowing better than 114 a night, and I think Denver’s offensive advantage pushes this into the upper 220s.

Final Picks: Denver Nuggets Moneyline | Over 225.5 Points (if available)

Disclaimer: This preview was completed on November 6, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, and starting lineups may change before tipoff.