Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Prediction and Picks for Tuesday, October 21st, 2025
Use Code SSWC The NBA season is upon us, and the action gets underway on Tuesday night with a marquee Western Conference showdown between the Golden State Warriors (0-0) and the Los Angeles Lakers (0-0). We’ve got you covered with our Warriors vs. Lakers prediction. Below I’ll dive into all of the key information to get you primed for the season opener, before finishing with picks and predictions on this contest. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 ET from crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA. Read on for free NBA picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Warriors Running it Back With Curry & Butler
Steve Kerr is back at the helm for the Golden State Warriors, and his veteran group is looking to build on a conference semifinals appearance in 2024-25. The front office made that blockbuster trade to acquire Jimmy Butler, but playoff injuries to him and star guard Stephen Curry saw the Warriors get ushered out in the conference semis in five games by the Timberwolves.
It’ll be a similar cast leading the way for Golden State this season. Curry (24.5 PPG, 6.0 APG) will handle things in the backcourt, while Butler (17.9 PPG, 5.9 APG) and Draymond Green (9.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG) will slot in as the forwards. The Warriors brought in Al Horford (9.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG) to take over the starting center role. Heading into the campaign, the Warriors are expected to navigate this tough Western Conference and make the playoffs, as they’re priced at -320 to do so. Golden State is +1800 to win the NBA Finals, which puts only seven teams ahead of them on the odds board.
- Last season, Golden State averaged 112.5 points per game, which was 20th in the Association.
- The Warriors ranked 26th in field goal rate (44.9%) and 16th in three-point shooting (36.2%).
- Defensively, they were seventh in efficiency, conceding 108.9 points per 100 possessions.
- From a sports betting perspective, Golden State was 54-41 SU and 46-46-3 ATS.
Lakers Building Around Doncic
The expectations are always high for the Los Angeles Lakers, and this year is no exception. From a sports betting perspective, the Lake Show are sizable -310 favorites to make the playoffs. They’re currently sitting at +1400 to win the title, which is the sixth-shortest price in the market. Coach JJ Redick is back in the saddle, and he’s looking to build on a 50-32 debut campaign that saw his squad finish third in the West. Los Angeles, like Golden State, was ushered out of the postseason by Minnesota. The Lakers lost in the first round in five games.
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In terms of personnel, it’ll be a backcourt of a slimmed down Luka Doncic (28.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 7.5 APG) and Austin Reaves (20.2 PPG, 5.8 APG) leading the way. It’s worth noting that PF LeBron James (24.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 8.2 APG) won’t start his 2025-26 campaign until mid-November due to a sciatica issue. In terms of additions, the front office brought in Deandre Ayton (14.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG) to take over at center and Marcus Smart (9.3 PPG) to supplement the guard depth.
- The Lakers scored 112.6 points per game in 2024-25, which was the 18th-most in the NBA.
- They registered a field goal rate of 47.7% (10th), while cashing 36.5% of their triples (13th).
- Los Angeles’ defense was solid last year, allowing 111.4 points per 100 possessions (14th).
- In terms of their betting numbers, the Lakers went 52-36 SU and 46-39-2 ATS.
Warriors vs. Lakers Pick
Spread Pick for Warriors vs. Lakers
- Golden State Warriors -2.0 (-110) (5 units)
I’ll ride with the Warriors and lay the points with them as road favorites in the opener. Jimmy Butler (ankle) is listed as day-to-day, but the reports suggest that he’ll likely be available in this contest.
On the flip side, star power forward LeBron James (sciatica) is sidelined until November, and when you take him out of the equation, this Lakers lineup is looking pretty thin. Of course, Luka Doncic (28.2 PPG) is going to put up his numbers, but after him, you have to wonder where the scoring will come from. They’ll be taking on a top-10 Golden State defense as well. These teams have split both SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings (5-5 each), but the big difference this time is James’ absence. I trust the Curry-Butler superstar duo and the veteran depth of Draymond Green and Al Horford to emerge victorious in this game.
Over/Under Pick for Warriors vs. Lakers
- Under 225.5 (-105) (5 units)
I’ll play the under as well. As I mentioned, I’m just not overly confident in this Los Angeles offense with James sidelined. This was already a group last season that was just 12th in offensive efficiency, scoring a pedestrian 113.4 points per 100 possessions. They’ll be trying to navigate a Golden State defense that was seventh in defensive efficiency, allowing only 108.9 points per 100 possessions. Los Angeles was 14th in the same category (111.4).
In terms of pace, the Lakers were 21st last season, using only 100.1 possessions per game. Golden State was 18th (101.3). The over has been a profitable venture between these two teams (9-1 L10) and the public always loves betting overs, so this is likely why we’re seeing this high of a total. However, with James out of the picture and a couple of top-half defenses, I think it’s a good time to buy back and make a contrarian bet on the under.
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