Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday February 25 2026
Warriors vs Grizzlies picks are on my radar tonight as Golden State heads to Memphis for a key Western Conference matchup. If you are searching for sharp NBA predictions, this game offers value on the total based on recent trends and defensive form.
TLDR - Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Memphis +4
- Total Pick: Over 228.5
- Projected Final Score: Golden State 119, Memphis 117
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Stats to Know and Betting Trends for Golden State vs Memphis
- Golden State has won the last five meetings.
- All five of those Warriors wins went over the total.
- The Warriors have averaged 124.2 points per game in those five games.
- Golden State is 3-6 straight-up and 2-7 against the spread over its last nine games.
- Memphis has seen nine of its last ten games go over the total.
- Over the last ten games, Memphis is No. 28 in defensive rating and allowing 125.0 points per game.
- The current total sits at 228.5 after opening as low as 226.5.
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Market | Golden State | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -4 (-108) | +4 (-112) |
| Total | Over 228.5 (-112) | Under 228.5 (-108) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Golden State | Memphis | Public |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/25 | 10:13:31AM | -4 (-108) | +4 (-112) | MEM 68%, MEM 60% |
| 02/25 | 10:09:43AM | -4 (-110) | +4 (-110) | MEM 68%, MEM 60% |
| 02/24 | 11:07:40PM | -3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-110) | |
| 02/24 | 07:04:52PM | -2.5 (-114) | +2.5 (-106) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/25 | 10:07:01AM | 228.5 (-112) | 228.5 (-108) | OV 64%, OV 50% |
| 02/25 | 07:57:45AM | 230.5 (-112) | 230.5 (-108) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 02/25 | 05:57:38AM | 229.5 (-110) | 229.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 02/24 | 07:04:52PM | 226.5 (-114) | 226.5 (-106) |
Warriors
Golden State has dominated this matchup recently, winning five straight meetings. In those games, the Warriors averaged 124.2 points and every contest went over the total.
That said, current form is shaky. Golden State is just 3-6 straight-up and 2-7 against the spread over the last nine games. They are also on the second leg of a back-to-back after losing in New Orleans. In that game, they were outscored 20-4 in fast-break points.
Steph Curry and Kristaps Porzingis remain out. Al Horford is questionable. Without Curry, the offense has been inconsistent, but this is a favorable matchup against a struggling defense.
Memphis
Memphis is trying to snap a losing streak after losses to Miami and Sacramento. The Grizzlies are dealing with major injuries. Santi Aldama, Cedric Coward, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Ja Morant, Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke are all out. Kyle Anderson is questionable.
Even with all those injuries, Memphis has played at a top-five pace over the last ten games. The issue has been defense. They rank No. 28 in defensive rating in that stretch and have allowed 125.0 points per game.
Nine of the Grizzlies’ last ten games have gone over the total. Their style and defensive struggles create high-scoring games.
Warriors vs Grizzlies Game Preview and Analysis
This matchup sets up for points. Memphis pushes the pace and struggles to get stops. Golden State’s offense has been limited without Curry, but if there is a defense to attack, this is it.
Golden State is tired, but Memphis is shorthanded. The spread has moved from Memphis -2.5 to -4, showing strong support for the home side. I lean Memphis on the number because Golden State is just 2-7 against the spread over the last nine games.
The stronger play is the total. With Memphis allowing 125.0 points per game over its last ten and playing fast, this game should feature plenty of possessions. Given the recent head-to-head trend and Memphis’ defensive form, I am backing the over.
Key Injuries and Notes - GSW and MEM
- GSW: Steph Curry and Kristaps Porzingis remain out.
- GSW: Al Horford is questionable.
- MEM: Ja Morant, Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, Santi Aldama, Cedric Coward and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are out.
- MEM: Kyle Anderson is questionable.
- Memphis has allowed 125.0 points per game over the last ten games.
Final Score Prediction
I expect a fast pace and plenty of scoring on both sides.
- Projected Final Score: Golden State 119, Memphis 117
ATS and Total Picks
- ATS Pick: Memphis +4
- Total Pick: Over 228.5
