Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, October 21, 2025

The top two Western Conference teams from last season kick off a new campaign on Tuesday night, so check out our Rockets vs. Thunder predictions and get ready for the new NBA season. Houston (52-30 SU, 43-38-1 ATS) were champions of the Southwest Division but bowed out in the first round of the playoffs. Oklahoma City (68-14 SU, 53-25-4 ATS) enters an NBA season as the defending champs for the first time. Tipoff from the Paycom Center in OKC is scheduled for 7:30 EST and with the start of the season upon us, it’s in your best interest to check out our NBA Free picks.

Rockets ready for next step

The Rockets are coming off of their best season of their last six and the ended a four-year playoff draught in the process. They earned the second seed in the Western Conference but were upended in the first round by Golden State in seven games.

Houston made waves by picking up the biggest ticket item in the offseason, signing Kevin Durant to a two-year, $90 million contract. Last season, the now 37-year-old was sixth in the league with 26.6 points and 36.5 minutes per game. He’ll look to boost an offense that averaged 114.3 points per game last season, 13th in the NBA. Last season’s leading scorer, Jalen Green (21 points per game) will miss the start of the season with a hamstring injury. Alperen Sengun, who averaged 19.1 points and 10.3 rebounds per game last season, leaped NBA All-Star in his fourth season in the league.

Last season, the Rockets had the sixth best scoring defense in the game, allowing just 109.8 points per game. They were fourth in the league, holding teams to just 52.3% shooting on two-point shots and against the three they allowed teams to hit 35.7% of shots from long range. There was no team better on the glass than Houston who had 48.5 rebounds per game. They also averaged 8.4 steals and five blocks a night. On offense, the Rockets shot 45.5% from the field and 35.3% from three-point range while coughing up 13 turnovers a night, 10th fewest in the league.

Team notes

• Durant enters the season 8th on the NBA All-Time Scorers list with 30,571 points, 848 points behind Wilt Chamberlain in 7th.
• Team has improved by at least 11 wins in each of the first two seasons under Udoka.
• Fred Van Vleet, who averaged 14.1 points per game last season, had surgery to repair an ACL tear suffered in the offseason and is likely out for the season.

Thunder hoping crown not too heavy

The Thunder pretty much ran the table last and not only had the greatest season in franchise history, but they also tied for the sixth best record in league history. Champs of the Northwest Division, they defeated Minnesota in five games to win the Western Conference and then pushed the NBA Finals to seven games before taking down Indiana.

The Thunder didn’t do a whole lot to the roster that helped bring the first title to town, though injuries will have some players needing to step up and take in a bigger role early in the season. They have one of the more cohesive teams in the league, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who enters his eighth season in the league as the reigning MVP. The guard led the league with 32.7 points per game, shooting 51.9% from the field while playing 34.2 minutes a night, on average. They remain big down low with seven-footers Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren stuffing things in the middle. Last season they combined to average 18.7 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game.

Oklahoma City had the fourth best scoring offense last season, averaging 120.5 points per game and the third best scoring defense, allowing 107.6 points per game. They topped the league with a 2.19 assist-to-turnover ratio last season and their 11 turnovers per game were fewest overall. Defensively, they kept their opponents to 51% on two-point shots and 34.3% on three-point shots, both the best marks in the league. The defense was good for 5.7 blocks and a league-best 10.3 steals per game, and they forced 16.3 turnovers a night, the most of any team.

Team notes

• Jalen Williams is not full-strength following wrist surgery in July and is likely to miss some time to open the season.
• Backup PG Nikola Topic is expected to be sidelined until mid-November following a medical procedure.
• The Thunder has improved in all five seasons under Daigneault.

Rockets vs. Thunder Picks

Spread Pick for Rockets vs. Thunder

• Houston +7.5 (5 units)

The top two Western Conference teams met five times last season and Oklahoma City went 3-2 SU while Houston was 3-2 ATS. The Rockets are progressing similarly as OKC had and now they have a superstar in the mix to lead the youthful core that they’ve built. They are one of the only teams that can outwork the Thunder down low as Houston led the league in rebounding last season, grabbing 48.5 a game. They’re the new upstarts and this is a great showcase opportunity for them to come in and make an early mark on the season. The Thunder are pretty banged up heading into the season and surely the championship hangover will be lingering when they raise the banner pregame. If you can get in at this number, Durant and company should reward you. Houston is 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the Thunder.

Take the Rockets getting the points.

Over/Under Pick for Rockets vs. Thunder

• Over 226.5 (4 units)

This matchup features two teams that were in the top half of the league in scoring and defense. Last season, the teams averaged a combined 235.2 points per meeting. Last season Houston ranked 17th in possessions per game (102.4) and 18th in pace (99.03), per TeamRankinks.com. I firmly expect these numbers to jump up in a big way with the addition of Durant, who was 12th in the league in field goal attempts last season. The Thunder ranks fifth in pace (100.9) and 10th in possessions per game (103.5), so they made the most of all of their opportunities. Even if they are without Williams for this one, they have enough shooters to get by. The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the teams.

Take the over.