Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Prediction for Monday November 9 2026

Indiana heads to Dallas on Monday night for an 8 PM ET game against the Mavericks at American Airlines Center. The Pacers just lost 114-102 to Denver on Saturday in Mexico City. Now they have to travel back to the United States and face Dallas. That’s a difficult turnaround, especially for a team that’s been struggling. The Mavericks have Brooklyn on Sunday, so they’ll also be playing consecutive nights. Neither team has an ideal schedule, but Dallas has been the better defensive club. That’s where I’m leaning. The NBA action is just starting to heat up on the court and you need to make sure you are fully prepared with our free NBA predictions.

Indiana Pacers Have Been Struggling to Finish Games

Indiana is 3-7 overall and 3-2 on the road after losing to Denver on Saturday. The Pacers have dropped six of their last seven, and that’s not a good way to enter a road game against Dallas. They did beat Memphis 107-103 on Wednesday, so they’re capable of winning close games. But the offense has been inconsistent, and the defense hasn’t been doing enough to cover for it.

The Pacers are averaging 110.3 points and allowing 114.2. Those numbers aren’t terrible, but they haven’t been good enough to win consistently. Indiana has been having trouble sustaining offensive possessions, and the defense has been allowing opponents to get comfortable. Dallas isn’t an especially explosive offensive team, but the Mavericks have been more dependable at both ends.

Pascal Siakam scored 23 points against Denver, while Larry Nance Jr. added 15 and made five three-pointers. That’s useful production, but Indiana still lost by 12. Tyrese Haliburton and Ben Sheppard have been listed unavailable, which affects the backcourt rotation. The Pacers need more consistent offense from the available players, especially with the travel situation.

Dallas Mavericks Have Been Getting Enough Defense to Win

Dallas enters Sunday’s game against Brooklyn at 5-4 overall and 3-2 at home. The Mavericks beat Utah 112-100 on Friday after losing 112-111 to San Antonio on Wednesday. They’ve been involved in some close games, but they’ve generally been competitive. Dallas hasn’t been putting up huge offensive numbers, yet the defense has been good enough to keep it in games.

The Mavericks are averaging 112.1 points and allowing 110.9. That’s a small but positive scoring difference. Dallas has been better defensively than Indiana, and that’s important because neither team has been especially consistent offensively. The Mavericks should have opportunities to attack a Pacers defense allowing more than 114 points per game.

The biggest concern for Dallas is the schedule. The Mavericks have to play Brooklyn on Sunday, then turn around and face Indiana Monday. That could affect the rotation and shooting legs. But Dallas gets to stay home, while Indiana is traveling back from Mexico City. The Mavericks also have the advantage of a more dependable defense. I think that’s enough to make them the better side.

Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Dallas Mavericks

I’m taking Dallas. Indiana has lost six of its last seven, and the Pacers have to deal with a difficult travel schedule after playing in Mexico City. Dallas has its own back-to-back, so this isn’t a perfect spot for the Mavericks. But they’re defending better, they’re at home, and Indiana has been struggling to finish games. The Pacers could make this close if Siakam has another strong night. I just trust Dallas to get more stops when it matters.

Total Pick: Under 225.5 Points

Give me the under 225.5 if that’s the number. Indiana is averaging 110.3 points, and Dallas is at 112.1. Neither offense has been especially productive, and both teams have scheduling concerns. Dallas has been allowing only 110.9 points per game, which should help keep Indiana under control. The danger is fatigue leading to sloppy defense and easy baskets. But I think this is more likely to be a 112-106 game than a shootout.

Final Picks: Dallas Mavericks Moneyline | Under 225.5 Points (if available)