Indiana Pacers vs. Denver Nuggets Picks and Prediction, Saturday, November 8, 2025
In a non-conference matchup between two teams heading in different directions, the Denver Nuggets host the Indiana Pacers. The Nuggets (6-2) have won three in a row and six of seven games since dropping their opener, while the Pacers (1-7) have lost two in a row after their lone win on the season. Check out the Indiana Pacers vs. Denver Nuggets prediction for the matchup, injury report, and full score info.
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The Nuggets come into this game as a heavy favorite, posted at -12 with a total of 233.5.
Bad Home Loss for Shorthanded Pacers
The Pacers have been decimated by injuries, and in their last game, they were at home in a bad 112-103 home loss to the Brooklyn Nets, which was their first win of the season. Indiana played pretty good defense, holding the Nets to 41.9% shooting and 35% 3-pt shooting, but they only shot 41.4% and 36.1% from deep and were outscored 26-8 from the free-throw line. In the loss, Pascal Siakam led the way with 23 points and 10 assists, Ben Sheppard had a season high 18 points, and Jay Huff came off the bench to go for 16 points. Indiana failed to cover as a 6.5-point favorite, and they had covered the spread in their previous two games.
The Pacers rank fourth-to-last in the league in scoring and rank 24th in defensive scoring. Three of the top five scorers for the team are injured. While leading scorer Bennedict Mathurin (31 ppg), who has missed the last two games, is listed as a game-time decision, he is likely doubtful. Siakam (25.6 ppg, 8.1 rpg) has averaged 27.3 ppg in the last three games. Aaron Nesmith (14.8 ppg) has totaled 32 points in the last two games, but on the season is only shooting 34.2% from the floor. Sheppard (8 ppg) had only totaled 16 points in four games before going for 18 in the last one. On the season, Indiana is 0-3 on the road.
Injuries
- Bennedict Mathurin – Doubtful
- Andrew Nembhard – Out
- Obi Toppin – Out
- Johnny Furphy – Out
- Quenton Jackson – Out
- Kam Jones – Out
- T.J. McConnell – Out
- Tyrese Haliburton – Out
Nuggets Stay Perfect at Home
In their last game, the Nuggets got their fifth home win in five tries in a 129-104 NBA Cup group game over the Stephen Curry-less Golden State Warriors. They killed it on both sides of the floor, shooting 56.1% and 48.5% from behind the 3-point arc and held the Dubs to 42.1% shooting and 29.3% 3-pt shooting. Nikola Jokic nearly had a triple-double with 26 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists. Jamal Murray had 23 points, and Aaron Gordon had 18 points. Denver covered as a 9.5-point favorite, and they have covered the spread in the last two games after failing to do so in the previous two games.
The Nuggets have had great balance so far, ranking second in the NBA in scoring and sixth in defensive scoring.
Jokic (24.1 ppg, 13.4 rpg, 12 apg) leads the league in assists, ranks second in rebounding, and in the last game, was only his second of the season where he did not have a triple-double. Murray (22.7 ppg) had struggled with his shot for two games, totaling 29 points in two games before 23 points on 66.7% shooting in the last game. Gordon (20.4 ppg) had totaled 44 points in two games before 18 points in the last game. Not only is Denver 5-0 at home, but they have covered the spread in four of their five games in their house.
Injuries
None
Pacers vs. Nuggets Pick
Spread Pick Pacers vs. Nuggets
- Nuggets -12 (+4 Units)
The Nuggets have won three in a row and six of seven games, while the Pacers have lost two in a row and have only one win on the season. Indiana is massively shorthanded due to injuries, and they are missing a lot of scoring. On the other side of the coin, Denver is fully healthy, and they are the second-highest scoring team in the league. Denver is a big favorite, at with good reason, and they are 2-1 ATS this season when they are a double-digit favorite. In terms of the Indiana Pacers vs. Denver Nuggets prediction, the Nuggets will dominate this game on both sides of the floor and easily win and cover.
Over/Under Pick for Pacers vs. Nuggets
- Under 233.5 (+4 Units)
In the last seven games for the Pacers, including the last three, the total has gone under, and that is the pick I am leaning towards in this game. The Pacers are missing a ton of scoring with all of the players they have injured. Add that to the fact that they are playing a Nuggets team that ranks sixth in the league in defensive scoring, and they will put up a low total in this game. The Nuggets also rank second in the league in scoring, and they will put up a pretty high total. Still, Indy will really struggle to put up points, and that is the main reason the Over is the pick here.