Indiana Pacers vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction and Picks for Sunday, November 9th, 2025

The Pacers (1-8) are struggling to find wins early this season, and their next challenge will be taking on a Warriors side (5-5) that’s playing .500 basketball to start the year. We’ve got you covered with our Pacers vs. Warriors prediction. Tip-off is set for 8:30 ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco, CA. Read on for free NBA picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.

Pacers Drop to 1-8

The Indiana Pacers are coming off of a season where they made a run to the NBA Finals, but eventually lost in seven games against the Thunder. Unfortunately, that success hasn’t carried over to the new campaign, as the Pacers are just 1-8 out of the gate. Their lone win did come against the Warriors (114-109), but they’ve since dropped three more games to the Bucks (117-115), Nets (112-103), and Nuggets (117-100), most recently. From a sports betting perspective, Indiana is 5-3 ATS and 6-2 to the under.

Indiana was an 8.5-point road underdog against Denver on Saturday, so they didn’t cover in the 17-point rout. Statistically, the Pacers were better in turnovers (11 to 16), while the Nuggets held edges in field goal rate (48.4% to 35.5%), three-point shooting (29.6% to 22.2%), and rebounding (55 to 43). Individually, Aaron Nesmith led the way with 25 points on a 7-10 (70%) shooting night.

• Indiana is averaging 110.3 points per game, which is the 27th-most in the Association.
• The Pacers are currently ranked last in field goal rate (40.9%) and last in three-point shooting (30.0%).
• Defensively, they are 14th in efficiency, conceding 111.6 points per 100 possessions.
• Injury Report: All of the following players are out: Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles), T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Kam Jones (back), Obi Toppin (foot), Quenton Jackson (hamstring), Benedict Mathurin (toe).

Warriors Hammered By the Nuggets

The Golden State Warriors have been a force in the Western Conference for a decade, and they’re still looking to compete with the veteran roster they’re rolling out. So far, the Warriors are 5-5, but they’ve dropped back-to-back games against the Kings (121-116) and the Nuggets (129-104), more recently. Golden State enters this contest at 5-5 ATS and they’ve gone 7-3 to the over.

The Warriors were 7.5-point road underdogs against the Nuggets on Friday, so they failed to cover in the 25-point loss. Statistically, Golden State won the rebounding battle (46 to 41), but Denver was better in every other major category, including field goal rate (56.1% to 42.1%), three-point shooting (48.5% to 29.3%), and turnovers (8 to 12). Draymond Green led the scoring charge, dropping 17 points in the loss.

• The Warriors are scoring 116.1 points per game, which is the 19th-most in the NBA.
• They own a field goal rate of 46.3% (18th), while cashing 38.0% of their triples (eighth).
• Golden State’s defense is 19th in efficiency, allowing 112.9 points per 100 possessions.
• Injury Report: Steph Curry (illness) and Al Horford (foot) are both questionable for Sunday's game.

Pacers vs. Warriors Pick

Spread Pick for Pacers vs. Warriors

• Golden State Warriors -12.5 (-110) (5 units)

I’ll ride with the Warriors simply due to all of the injury issues that the Pacers have at the moment. Indiana’s lack of star power has translated to the stat sheet, where the Pacers are dead last in both field goal rate (40.9%) and three-point shooting (30.0%). Meanwhile, the Warriors are always a force at home, as they’re 4-0 ATS at home this season. Golden State should have no issues stretching out a double-digit lead in this one – give me the Warriors.

Over/Under Pick for Pacers vs. Warriors 

• Over 227.5 (-108) (5 units)

Even though Indiana’s offense worries me, I’ll still play the over in this game. They’re the third-quickest team in the Association, using 107.9 possessions per game. Furthermore, neither team has been very serviceable defensively this year. Indiana is allowing 111.6 points per 100 possessions (14th), while Golden State is at 19th (112.9). The over is 9-3 in Golden State’s last 12 games overall. Let’s take the over.