Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Picks and Predictions for Friday, October 30, 2026

Miami finally got its first win Wednesday, beating Atlanta 129-117 after opening the season with four losses. The Heat are 1-4 and fifth in the Southeast Division. Indiana is 2-3, third in the Central Division, after losing 114-109 to Philadelphia on Wednesday. The teams meet Friday at Kaseya Center, where Miami has lost all three home games this season. Tipoff is at 8:00 pm ET on NBA League Pass. This is an NBA Cup group-play matchup, with the result also counting toward regular-season records. Cash in a winning ticket with our free NBA picks.

Indiana Pacers Have Dropped Two Straight

Indiana had a promising afternoon in Brooklyn on Sunday, beating the Nets 136-109. The Pacers haven't won since. Milwaukee beat them 110-102 on Monday, followed by Philadelphia's five-point victory Wednesday. Indiana also lost 121-105 to Dallas earlier in the season, although it opened with a 123-120 win at New Orleans. The Pacers have been scoring 116.5 points per game and shooting 48.5% from the floor. Their passing has been good, too, with 29.3 assists per outing. Defense has been less consistent.

Pascal Siakam is scoring 23.5 points per game, making 52.9% of his shots and averaging 7.8 rebounds. Tyrese Haliburton has contributed 21.8 points and 9.5 assists, but he's unavailable Friday. Andrew Nembhard has supplied 16 points and 5.7 assists, making him an important option without Haliburton. Ivica Zubac is averaging nine rebounds and shooting 60%, although his availability is uncertain. Indiana will need Siakam to remain productive while other players take on more responsibility.

Injuries: Tyrese Haliburton, T.J. McConnell, Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy are out. Ivica Zubac is questionable.

Miami Heat Finally Get a Victory

It took five games, but Miami has a win on the board. The Heat went into Atlanta on Wednesday and scored 129 points, beating the Hawks by 12. That was a considerable improvement on Monday's 113-109 home loss to Dallas. Miami had also lost 115-110 at Charlotte, 128-111 against Detroit and 131-106 against Minnesota. Those results explain the team's 1-4 start. The Heat have allowed 120.8 points per game and haven't won at Kaseya Center yet. Friday offers another opportunity to change that.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been carrying plenty of Miami's offense, averaging 28.5 points and 9.5 rebounds while making 55.7% of his shots. Davion Mitchell has provided 18 points and seven assists, shooting 45% from beyond the arc. Bam Adebayo is contributing 11.8 points and 7.3 rebounds, although he's making only 40% of his attempts. Miami is shooting 43.2% overall, considerably below Indiana's mark. The Heat need better performances from their supporting players if Wednesday's result is going to become a regular occurrence.

Injuries: Simone Fontecchio is questionable.

Key To The Game

Indiana's biggest concern is handling the offense without Haliburton. He's been responsible for 9.5 assists per game, and the Pacers will need Nembhard and Siakam to help replace that production. Miami has its own problem stopping opponents, having allowed at least 113 points in every game. Antetokounmpo could have success attacking Indiana's interior defense, particularly if Zubac cannot play. The Pacers shoot better overall, but Miami's advantage around the basket could decide a close contest.

Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Game Pick

• Miami Heat

Wednesday's win in Atlanta gives Miami something to build on after a difficult opening week. Antetokounmpo has been producing consistently, and Mitchell provides another useful scoring option. Indiana can certainly put points on the board, but playing without Haliburton makes the Pacers less dangerous offensively. Zubac's uncertain status is another concern against Miami's frontcourt. The Heat have yet to win at home, although this looks like a reasonable opportunity to change that. I'm taking Miami to get its second consecutive victory.

Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Over/Under Pick

• Over

Miami's defense has allowed at least 113 points in all five games, and Indiana is averaging 116.5 per contest. The Pacers have already scored 136 against Brooklyn and 123 against New Orleans. Miami's latest outing produced 246 combined points, while its previous four games also featured plenty of scoring. Haliburton's absence could reduce Indiana's output, but Siakam and Nembhard can still create chances. Antetokounmpo should also find opportunities against a Pacers defense allowing 114.8 points. I'm expecting another high-scoring game, so over is the pick.