Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday February 27 2026
Grizzlies vs Mavericks NBA picks jump off the board in the Western Conference tonight, and if you are searching for sharp NBA predictions, this matchup offers value on both the side and the total. The market is leaning Dallas, but when I break down recent form and scheduling spots, I see opportunity with the underdog.
TLDR - Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Grizzlies +5
- Total Pick: Over 240.5
- Projected Final Score: Mavericks 123, Grizzlies 119
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Stats to Know and Betting Trends for Grizzlies vs Mavericks
- Memphis has won and covered each of the last six meetings in this series.
- The last meeting was a six-point road win for Memphis in Dallas.
- Six of the Mavericks’ last eight games have gone over the total.
- The over is 10-1 in Memphis’ last 11 games.
- During that 11-game span, Memphis has allowed 125.7 points per game.
- Dallas is on the second leg of a back-to-back.
- Over the last ten games, Memphis has posted a better net rating than Dallas.
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Market | Memphis | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +5 (-110) | -5 (-110) |
| Total | Over 240.5 (-110) | Under 240.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Memphis | Dallas | Public |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/26 | 07:18:43PM | +6 (-110) | -6 (-110) | |
| 02/27 | 09:00:57AM | +5 (-112) | -5 (-108) | DAL 87%, DAL 67% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/26 | 07:11:58PM | 235.5 (-114) | 235.5 (-106) | |
| 02/27 | 07:58:00AM | 240.5 (-110) | 240.5 (-110) | OV 90%, UN 64% |
Mavericks
Dallas is on the second leg of a back-to-back after losing at home to Sacramento as a 7.5-point favorite. The Mavs allowed 76 points in the paint in that defeat.
Naji Marshall exploded for 36 points and ten rebounds while playing more than 42 minutes. That workload matters on a back-to-back.
Six of Dallas’ last eight games have gone over the total, which fits the recent defensive issues.
Grizzlies
Memphis has dropped seven of its last eight games, including a 21-point home loss to Golden State. Defense has been the main issue.
During the last 11 games, the Grizzlies have allowed 125.7 points per game. That is not sustainable if you want to win, but it does create high totals.
The over has cashed in 10 of Memphis’ last 11 games. Even with injuries, this team is playing fast and loose.
Grizzlies vs Mavericks Game Preview and Analysis
Memphis has owned this series recently, winning and covering the last six meetings. That includes a road win in Dallas in late November.
Dallas is laying five points here despite playing on tired legs. The Mavericks have not impressed against struggling teams recently, facing opponents like the Lakers, Pacers, Nets and Kings and failing to dominate consistently.
Over the last ten games, Memphis has actually posted a better net rating than Dallas. That is a key data point that does not match the perception of these teams.
The total has climbed from 235.5 to 240.5, and I understand why. Both teams are trending over, and Memphis is allowing points in bunches.
I am grabbing the points with Memphis and riding the over in what should be a high-scoring contest.
Key Injuries and Notes - MEM and DAL
- Brandon Clarke, Santi Aldama, Cedric Coward, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Ja Morant and Zach Edey remain out for Memphis.
- Ty Jerome is listed as doubtful for Memphis.
- P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford and Cooper Flagg missed Dallas’ loss to Sacramento.
- Dallas is on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Final Score Prediction
- Mavericks 123, Grizzlies 119
ATS and Total Picks
- Spread: Grizzlies +5
- Total: Over 240.5
