Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Picks and Prediction for Wednesday October 28 2026

The Wednesday NBA schedule will get started with a Southeast Division matchup between the Miami Heat and the Atlanta Hawks. Tipoff is scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 7:00 pm EST from State Farm  Arena. The game can be streamed on NBA League Pass. The Hawks are opened as a 3.5 point home favorite and the total is sitting at 239.5. Be ready for all of this season's NBA action with our free NBA picks.

Miami winless with Giannis

The Miami Heat have qualified for the playoffs in seven of the previous ten seasons ,but have not won a playoff series since advancing to the NBA Finals in 2023. The Heat (0-4) traded for two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo in the offseason and they are still working out the kinks on offense. On Monday, Miami was unable to make the plays down the stretch of a 113-109 home loss versus Dallas. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo matched a game-high with 29 points (12-23 FG) to go along with 14 rebounds and 11 assists. Miami G Davion Mitchell scored 21 points on 9-for-15 shooting and finished with a minus ten rating. Pelle Larson added 12 points (3-6 FG) and four assists off the Heat bench. 

Miami played at the fastest tempo in the league a season ago, but are currently in the middle of the pack in that category. The Heat rank near the bottom of the NBA in offensive efficiency (102.6) and are scoring 109 points per contest. During Monday’s loss, Miami missed 11 of 25 free-throw attempts and shot 45 percent from the field.

Atlanta continues to improve on defense

The Atlanta Hawks caught fire in the second half of last season.and clinched the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks (2-2) finished seven games above .500 at home and averaged 118.5 points per contest. On Monday, Atlanta was outscored by 13 points during the second half of a 120-110 road loss against Houston. 

All-Star F Jalen Johnson tallied a team-high 21 points (10-12 FT), nine rebounds, and two blocks. Atlanta veteran G C.J. McCollum connected on half of his 16 field goal attempts and finished with 20 points. Aaron Wiggins added 12 points and four rebounds in 27 minutes off the bench for the Hawks. 

Under the leadership of head coach Quin Snyder, the Hawks have improved on defense in each of the last two seasons. Atlanta currently ranks seventh in the league in defensive efficiency and is allowing 111.8 points per game. During Monday’s loss, the Hawks were dominated on the glass by a 52-35 margin and let the Rockets shoot 53 percent from the field.

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Picks and Prediction

Pick: Miami Heat +3.5

Atlanta F Mouhamed Gueye has surgery to repair a fractured left foot and will be sidelined until later next month. The Heat took three out of four against the Hawks and won both games on the road by a combined 46 points. Miami is 0-4 ATS and this is a perfect buy low spot. Take the Heat to win outright as a small road underdog.

Pick: Under 239.5

These two teams rank in the middle of the pack in tempo and the Heat rank 24th in effective field goal percentage (50.0). In two road victories against Atlanta, Miami gave up an average of 104 points. The Heat have yet to score more than 111 points this season and will have to rely on their defense to get their first victory. Take the under.

Final Score Prediction: Miami Heat win 119-112