Miami Heat vs New York Knicks Prediction and Picks - November 14, 2025

Pro hoops action on Friday evening, and we have a Miami Heat vs New York Knicks prediction locked and loaded for you. The Heat enter this game off a 130-116 home loss to Cleveland, which drops them to 7-5 on the year. The Knicks are off a stunning 124-107 home loss to Orlando, which dropped them to 7-4. New York took three of the four meetings a year ago. Read on to see our Heat vs Knicks prediction.

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Three-Game Win Streak Is Snapped

Miami enters this matchup at 7–5, but their most recent outing against Cleveland was a frustrating one. The Heat fell 130–116, undone by sloppy play that included 21 turnovers and 29 fouls. Norman Powell was the bright spot, pouring in 27 points on 10-of-18 shooting, but the absence of Bam Adebayo continues to loom large. Without their anchor in the middle, Miami was out-rebounded 49–44 and gave up 15 offensive boards, which allowed the Cavaliers to control the fourth quarter. For a team that thrives on pace and spacing, those breakdowns in fundamentals proved costly, and they’ll need to tighten up against a Knicks squad that punishes mistakes.

Offensively, Miami has been explosive, leading the league with 124.8 points per game while shooting nearly 50% from the field. Their perimeter attack has been sharp, hitting 37.9% from three, and they’ve been efficient at the free throw line at over 80%. The ball movement has been a strength as well, with 365 assists already this season, the most in the NBA. When they’re in rhythm, the Heat can overwhelm opponents with their scoring depth, but the challenge will be sustaining that pace against New York’s defense, which has been one of the better units in the East.

Defensively, however, Miami has struggled, ranking 23rd in points allowed at 120.7 per game. They’ve been vulnerable on the glass, surrendering nearly 50 rebounds per contest, and opponents have been able to exploit them from deep at a 32% clip. The Heat force turnovers at a solid rate, but their inability to close possessions has left them exposed. Against the Knicks, who thrive on second-chance opportunities and physical play, Miami’s defense will need to show more discipline. If Adebayo remains sidelined, the Heat will have to rely on collective effort to keep New York from dominating the paint.

Knicks Stunned At Home By The Magic

The Knicks come in at 7–4, but they also dropped their last game, falling 124–107 to Orlando. Jalen Brunson was brilliant with 31 points before leaving late with an ankle injury, and his status looms large heading into this matchup. Without him, New York’s offense loses its primary playmaker and scorer, and the team struggled to find rhythm once he exited. The Knicks were out-rebounded 49–36 and allowed Orlando to shoot nearly 49% from the field, exposing cracks in their defensive intensity. For a team that had won five straight prior to that loss, the setback was a reminder of how much they rely on Brunson’s leadership.

Offensively, New York has been strong, averaging 120.5 points per game, good for eighth in the league. Brunson has been the engine, averaging 28 points and 6.5 assists, while Julius Randle continues to provide interior scoring and rebounding. The Knicks have also gotten steady contributions from RJ Barrett and Quentin Grimes, giving them balance across the lineup. When healthy, this group can score in bunches, but if Brunson is limited, the Knicks may need to lean more heavily on Randle’s post play and Barrett’s slashing ability to keep pace with Miami’s high-octane attack.

Defensively, the Knicks have been one of the better teams in the East, allowing just 113.7 points per game. They’ve been physical in the paint and disciplined on the perimeter, but the loss to Orlando showed how quickly things can unravel when they’re not locked in. New York thrives on controlling tempo and forcing opponents into tough shots, and they’ll need to re-establish that identity against Miami’s league-leading offense. Playing at home in the Garden, the Knicks will look to feed off the crowd and bounce back, but their ability to contain Miami’s shooters and win the rebounding battle will be the deciding factors.

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks Pick

Heat vs Knicks Spread Pick

• Knicks -5.5 (3 Units)

The Knicks -5.5 looks like a strong angle because New York has been one of the more consistent teams in the East, especially at home in Madison Square Garden. Even with Jalen Brunson’s ankle situation looming, the Knicks have the depth and physicality to control the pace against a Miami squad that has struggled defensively. Julius Randle’s ability to dominate the paint and RJ Barrett’s slashing attack give New York multiple scoring options, while their defense has been disciplined enough to limit Miami’s perimeter shooting. The Knicks thrive when they dictate tempo and force opponents into tough shots, and that formula matches up well against a Heat team that has been turnover-prone and vulnerable on the glass.

On the other side, Miami’s offense has been explosive, but their defensive lapses have consistently left them exposed. Without Bam Adebayo anchoring the middle, the Heat have struggled to protect the rim and control rebounds, which plays directly into New York’s strengths. The Knicks have been efficient in closing out games at home, and their ability to generate second-chance points should tilt the balance in their favor. With the Garden crowd behind them and a defense capable of slowing Miami’s pace, laying 5.5 points feels justified. New York has the tools, the depth, and the home-court advantage to cover this number.

Heat vs Knicks Over/Under Pick

• Under 236.5 (1 Unit)

The Under 236.5 makes sense because while both the Heat and Knicks can score in bunches, their styles often slow into half-court battles when they face each other. Miami has been explosive offensively but also turnover-prone, which leads to wasted possessions, while New York thrives on physical defense and grinding opponents down in the paint. With the Knicks ranking among the better defensive teams in the East and Miami struggling to protect the rim without Bam Adebayo, this matchup projects more as a bruising, possession-heavy contest than a track meet. That kind of pace favors a lower total, keeping the score under the number.