Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs, Preview, Picks and Prediction, Thursday, October 30, 2025
Can Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs keep up their winning run on Thursday when they host the Heat? Get the inside line on this matchup with our Heat vs. Spurs prediction and picks. Tip-off is scheduled for 7.30pm CT (8.30pm ET) at the Frost Bank Center, home of the Spurs.
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Miami bringing Heat on offense
The Miami Heat (3-1) have spectacularly started the season with the ball in hand. Tuesday's 146-114 blowout win over the Hornets was the second time in four games Miami has passed the 140-point barrier in 2025-26. That offensive power has led them to three straight wins after falling to the Magic in the opener, including very encouraging results against the Grizzlies and Knicks. The Heat lead the NBA with 131.5 ppg so far, while they also rank in the top five on field goal percentage (50.8%) and 3-point success (40.8% of shots made from deep). Last year the Heat finished 37-45 and squeezed into the playoffs with two play-in wins. They were swept in the first round by Cleveland.
Bam Adebayo has been firing the Heat early on. The center put up 26 points and six rebounds against Charlotte and averages 21.0 ppg and 9.0 rebounds through four games so far this year, shooting 42.9% from the field and 31.9% from behind the line as well as going 21-23 from the free-throw line (91.3%), marking a drastic improvement on his career average of 75.8%. For Wednesday's big test, the Heat will be waiting on Norm Powell. The guard led Miami on scoring through the opening three games with 24.0 ppg, 7.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.0 steals, but didn't dress against the Hornets due to a groin complaint. Miami is also without Tyler Herro (ankle) and Terry Rozier, who is the subject of an NBA investigation into gambling activities and on leave.
Wemby pulling all the strings
It took barely two games for Victor Wembanyama to establish himself as a strong MVP pick as he and the San Antonio Spurs (4-0) have come flying out of the blocks. The giant center has shown no ill effects from the deep vein thrombosis diagnosis in his shoulder, which shut him down towards the end of the 2024-25 campaign, and indeed has come back a better, more dynamic ballplayer both in and out of possession. Wemby is averaging 31.0 ppg, 13.4 rebounds, and 2.8 assists with just 1.5 turnovers, while his mark of 4.8 blocks per game is way out in front of any other NBA player so far this year.
The good news for the Spurs is that even with D'Andre Fox sidelined, Wembanyama is getting the support he needs to flourish, something lacking in his first two years in the league. Rookie Dylan Harper was acquired with the second pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, and the ex-Rutgers point guard has adapted well to pro ball, outshining even No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg so far with 14.8 ppg (5th among NBA rookies), 5.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists (2nd among NBA rookies). Devin Vassell has also been sharp from deep, where he is shooting 43.3% through four games. The Spurs as a team have a 52.4% success rate from the field, ranking third in the league, while its defense is holding opponents to 41.6% (2nd in NBA). Monday's 121-103 win over Toronto was the third time in the opening four games that San Antonio has allowed fewer than 110 points this season.
Fox will remain out for San Antonio for at least another week, as will Jeremy Socha,n who suffered a wrist injury before the season started. Kelly Olynyk (heel), Luke Kornet (ankle) and Lindy Waters III (eye) are marked questionable against the Heat.
Heat vs. Spurs Pick
Heat vs. Spurs Spread Pick
- Spurs to cover (5 Units)
Can anyone stop the Spurs right now? Miami looks like an unlikely candidate to do so as Wembanyama continues to dominate the early stages of this season. San Antonio is 2-0-2 ATS so far and leads the NBA with an average winning margin of 16.5 points. One of Miami's strengths so far has been their ability to get points inside the paint, and there it looks set to struggle: the Spurs are allowing 39.5 points in the paint per game in 2025-26, the third-lowest mark of any NBA team. The Spurs are averaging 6.8 blocks per game and will look to shut the Heat down under the hoop.
Take the Spurs.
Heat vs. Spurs Over/Under Pick
- Over (5 Units)
Having perhaps the best defensive player in all of the NBA tends to keep totals down, no matter how good your offense is. The Spurs have opened 2024-25 1-3 on the over and 0-2 in their first two home games. Their mark of 104.5 points allowed per game is the best in the league and they are also doing a great job at keeping opponents off the free-throw line, giving up 31.5 FTA/G (sixth in NBA).
Take the over.