Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers Prediction and Picks for Monday, November 3rd, 2025
Use Code SSWC The NBA features an Eastern Conference tilt between the Milwaukee Bucks (4-2) and the Indiana Pacers (1-5) on Monday, and we’ve got you covered with our Bucks vs. Pacers prediction. Below, I’ll touch on each team’s recent form and recap their latest game, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 7:00 ET from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN. Read on for free NBA picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Bucks Lose Barnburner to Kings
Coach Doc Rivers is back for his third season in charge of the Milwaukee Bucks, and he has the team looking sharp out of the gate. The Bucks enter the new week at 4-2. They had recently rattled off consecutive wins over the Knicks (121-111) and Warriors (120-110), but had their two-game winning streak snapped by the Kings last time out in a 135-133 barnburner. From a sports betting perspective, Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS and 5-1 to the over. As for the season-long outlook, the Bucks are priced at -260 to make the playoffs and +6000 to win the NBA championship.
The Bucks are coming off of that 135-133 home loss to the Kings on Saturday, and it was a spot where they were 6.5-point favorites, so they didn’t cover the spread in the outright loss. Statistically, Milwaukee held edges in field goal rate (59.8% to 51.7%) and three-point shooting (46.9% to 35.7%), while Sacramento was better in both turnovers (10 to 11) and rebounding (38 to 37). As for individual efforts, it was none other than Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the way with a double-double, scoring 26 points and grabbing 11 rebounds.
- Milwaukee is averaging 123.7 points per game, which is the fifth-most in the Association.
- The Bucks are currently ranked first in field goal rate (52.5%) and fourth in three-point shooting (40.6%).
- Defensively, they are seventh in efficiency, conceding 108.8 points per 100 possessions.
Pacers Snap Five-Game Slide, Beat Warriors
Coach Rick Carlisle and his Indiana Pacers are coming off of a NBA Finals runner-up performance last season, but unfortunately, that success hasn’t carried over to the new campaign. The Pacers are just 1-5 out of the gate, and they actually dropped their first five games of the year. The slide finally came to an end with a 114-109 home win over the Warriors last time out. Injuries have played a major role in the unsuccessful start to the year. Tyrese Haliburton (achilles) will miss the full season, while T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Kam Jones (back), Benedict Mathurin (toe), and Obi Toppin (foot) are all dealing with longer-term injuries. Andrew Nembhard (shoulder) missed Saturday’s game against the Warriors.
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The banged-up Pacers were 10.5-point home underdogs on Saturday, but they managed to cover the spread in the outright win over the Warriors. Indiana led every major statistical category, including field goal percentage (44.9% to 43.3%), three-point shooting (30.3%to 27.3%), turnovers (12 to 16), and rebounding (47 to 44). Aaron Nesmith led the way in scoring with 31 points, while Quenton Jackson posted a double-double with 25 points and 10 assists.
- The Pacers are scoring 112.5 points per game, which is the 26th-most in the NBA.
- They own a field goal rate of 40.2% (30th), while cashing 31.0% of their triples (29th).
- Indiana’s defense is 23rd in efficiency, allowing 114.7 points per 100 possessions.
Bucks vs. Pacers Pick
Spread Pick for Bucks vs. Pacers
- Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 (-110) (5 units)
I have no interest in backing the Pacers at this point in the season. They’re severely banged up, and I just don’t see where they’re going to get the scoring from to keep this game close. Indiana is just 1-5 SU this season, posting an average margin of victory of -8.7.
Meanwhile, the Bucks are playing well, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS this year. They’re first in field goal rate (52.5%) and fourth in three-point shooting (40.6%). They should have no issues scoring enough points to cover against this Pacers defense that’s 23rd in efficiency, allowing 114.7 points per 100 possessions
Over/Under Pick for Bucks vs. Pacers
- Under 235.5 (-110) (5 units)
I do expect to see some scoring in this game, but we have to draw the line somewhere. This total of 235.5 points is too high, so I’m jumping on the under. In terms of pace, Milwaukee is just 16th, using 104.6 possessions per game.
Really, I think it’ll be Indiana’s offense that keeps this final score under the number. They’re 29th in offensive efficiency, scoring 103.2 points per 100 possessions. They’ll take on a Milwaukee defense that’s seventh in defensive efficiency, allowing only 108.8 points per 100 possessions. The under is 4-1 in Indiana’s last five games. Give me the under.
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