Milwaukee Bucks vs New Orleans Pelicans Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday February 20 2026
Bucks vs Pelicans picks jump off the page because this matchup has been an automatic over machine in recent meetings. When I break down this game, I see injury adjustments, market movement, and a total that still might not be high enough. If you are looking for more value across the board tonight, I recommend checking out these NBA picks before locking in your wagers.
TLDR - Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Pelicans -4
- Total Pick: Over 222.5
- Projected Final Score: Pelicans 118, Bucks 112
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Stats to Know and Betting Trends for Bucks vs Pelicans
- Milwaukee has won seven of the last eight meetings.
- The over is 8-1-1 in the last ten meetings between these teams.
- The February 4 meeting finished 141-137 in overtime and would have gone over in regulation.
- Milwaukee went 5-1 straight-up and against the spread in its final six games before the All-Star break.
- New Orleans is 6-4 against the spread in its last ten games.
- The Pelicans are No. 12 in offensive rating over the last ten games.
- New Orleans has the lowest turnover rate in the league over the last ten games.
- Early money has come in on New Orleans with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Myles Turner ruled out.
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee | +4 (-112) | MIL 59%, MIL 90% |
| New Orleans | -4 (-108) | MIL 52%, MIL 84% |
| Market | Total | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 222.5 (-106) | OV 95%, OV 88% |
| Under | 222.5 (-114) | OV 95%, OV 88% |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Milwaukee | New Orleans | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/19 | 05:30:48PM | +5 (-110) | -5 (-110) | |
| 02/19 | 06:09:42PM | +3 (-106) | -3 (-114) | |
| 02/20 | 06:14:02AM | +4 (-114) | -4 (-106) | MIL 52%, MIL 84% |
| 02/20 | 08:40:54AM | +4 (-112) | -4 (-108) | MIL 59%, MIL 90% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/19 | 05:30:18PM | 224 (-110) | 224 (-110) | |
| 02/19 | 05:32:22PM | 222.5 (-110) | 222.5 (-110) | |
| 02/20 | 07:24:21AM | 221.5 (-114) | 221.5 (-106) | OV 95%, OV 88% |
| 02/20 | 07:24:10AM | 222.5 (-110) | 222.5 (-110) | OV 95%, OV 88% |
Pelicans
New Orleans was playing solid basketball before the break, going 6-4 against the spread in its last ten games. The Pelicans picked up outright upset wins over the Spurs and Timberwolves during that stretch.
Over the last ten games, New Orleans ranks No. 12 in offensive rating and has the lowest turnover rate in the league. That matters in a matchup where extra possessions could swing the total.
The Pelicans are on the front end of a back-to-back and will host Philadelphia on Saturday. Trey Murphy III is listed as doubtful, while Yves Missi and Micah Peavy are ruled out. Dejounte Murray is expected to make his season debut soon, but this game likely comes just before that return.
Milwaukee
Milwaukee has dominated the recent head-to-head series, winning seven of the last eight meetings. The February 4 meeting was a 141-137 overtime win for the Bucks and easily cleared the total.
The Bucks were also hot before the break, going 5-1 straight-up and against the spread in their last six games, with all five wins coming as an underdog.
However, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Myles Turner have both been ruled out. That is a major shift. Turner’s absence in particular could be felt against a Pelicans front court that knows how to score.
Bucks vs Pelicans Game Preview and Analysis
This handicap starts with the injuries. Removing Antetokounmpo and Turner changes the interior dynamic for Milwaukee. That is part of why early money has leaned toward New Orleans.
But I am more focused on the total. The over has hit in eight of the last ten meetings, and even the first game this season would have flown over without overtime.
New Orleans is taking care of the basketball at an elite level right now. Low turnovers mean more shot attempts. Milwaukee’s recent form suggests they can still score even without their full lineup.
The market dipped this total briefly before settling back at 222.5. Given the recent history and current offensive profiles, I still see value on the over.
MIL and NOP Key Injuries and Notes
- Giannis Antetokounmpo and Myles Turner are ruled out for Milwaukee.
- Yves Missi and Micah Peavy are ruled out for New Orleans.
- Trey Murphy III is listed as doubtful.
- Dejounte Murray is expected to return to the lineup soon.
- New Orleans is on the front end of a back-to-back.
Final Score Prediction
- Projected Final Score: Pelicans 118, Bucks 112
ATS and Total Picks
- Spread: Pelicans -4
- Total: Over 222.5
