New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks, Picks and Prediction, Wednesday, November 5, 2025
The Dallas Mavericks will host the New Orleans Pelicans at American Airlines Center as the Pelicans look to secure their first win of the season. Tipoff is slated for 8:30 PM Eastern. Read on for the Pelicans vs the Mavs prediction and more free NBA picks.
This article was written before Tuesday's action.
Pelicans Seek First Win
New Orleans was unable to knock off OKC as they fell in a 137-106 final on Sunday. The Pelicans saw themselves down by 17 after the first quarter,r and they never made it competitive from then on. New Orleans was held to under 44% from the floor while they allowed the Thunder to shoot better than 55%. Four starters finished with double figures as Zion Williamson led the way with 20 points and nine boards. New Orleans lost the battle on the glass and was outscored in the paint by 10.
New Orleans enters this contest averaging 107.7 points per game. The Pelicans have struggled both in the painted area and in transition this season. With an average score margin of -18.2, no one is losing by as wide a margin as New Orleans. They have tumbled into 29th as far as effective field goal percentage is concerned, and they have the lowest assist rate in the league. That said, New Orleans has been strong on the offensive glass, and they have been able to take care of the basketball as well as get to the charity stripe. Sharing the ball is a must if the Pelicans want to start seeing numbers tally up in the win column.
Key Stats:
- Zion Williamson: 22.8 Points Per Game
- Zion Williamson: 6.8 Rebounds Per Game
- Team Free Throw Percentage: 74.2%
On the defensive end of the court, New Orleans is allowing 125.8 points per game, which lands them at 28th in the league. The Pelicans have struggled to get stops in the open court, as foes have been generating nearly 20 fast break points per game. Additionally, they have had difficulties getting stops down low and have dropped to the bottom 10 in paint points allowed. New Orleans sits last in the league in opponent 2-point shooting, but they sit top 10 in opponent 3-point percentage and makes per game. What's more, the defense has done a solid job in defending without fouling. The possible lack of aggression on defense has compounded, however, as New Orleans sits in the bottom half of the league in steals, and opponents are grabbing more than 12 offensive rebounds per game. The Pelicans simply cannot allow their defense to continually get pushed around if they want to make a stand in the Southwest Division this season.
Key Injuries: Yves Missi (OUT), Zion Williamson (OUT), Dejounte Murray (OUT)
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Mavs Struggle Out Of The Gate
Dallas fell to in-state foe, Houston, on Monday, in a 110-102 final. The game was knotted with under three minutes to play, but the Dallas offense was held scoreless in the final three minutes of play, ultimately costing them. Four starters ended in double figures as P.J. Washington led the way with 29 points and 12 boards. Rookie Cooper Flagg added 12 points and five boards. The Mavericks shot under 45% from the floor and connected on just 25% of their outside shots as they also went on to lose the rebound battle and finished -6 in paint scoring.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ricky Tran | +952.00 |
| 2 |  Mike Lundin | +376.00 |
| 3 |  Brick Haus Sports | +300.00 |
| 4 |  Bruce Marshall | +247.00 |
| 5 |  Ben Burns | +190.00 |
Dallas comes into this contest averaging 107.3 points per game, ranking 30th in the league. The Mavericks have struggled to share the basketball this season, ranking among the league's worst assist-to-turnover ratios. They have also struggled to exert their will in the painted area, and their 45 paint points per game is bottom five in the NBA. Dallas has dropped to the bottom five in effective field goal percentage. Dallas also hasn't shown to put much premium on the basketball as they are near the bottom of the league in offensive rebound rate and are turning it over more than 16 times per contest.
Key Stats:
- Anthony Davis: 20.8 Points Per Game
- Anthony Davis: 10.2 Rebounds Per Game
- Team Free Throw Percentage: 77.2%
On the defensive end of the court, Dallas is allowing 115.6 points per game, which lands them at 10th in the league. The Mavs have struggled to defend the open court this season, as foes are generating more than 20 transition points per game. What's more, the Mavs sit at the bottom of the NBA when it comes to opponent paint scoring per game. In fact, more than 50% of points allowed this season are coming from the painted area. Not a trend the Mavs want to see continued here. That being said, they are sitting in the top 10 when it comes to opponent effective field goal percentage, and they are holding foes to right around 10 made 3-pointers per contest, which leads the NBA. The Mavs haven't been particularly pesky with their hands as they have slipped to the bottom 10 in steals per game. On top of that, they are surrendering more than 13 offensive rebounds per game, which leads to far too many second-chance points.
Key Injuries: Dante Exum (OUT), Dereck Lively ll (OUT), Anthony Davis (OUT), Kyrie Irving (OUT)
Pelicans vs Mavs Pick
Side Pick for Pelicans vs Mavs
- Dallas -7.5 (4 Units)
Even without some key players, Dallas clearly has the more complete lineup expected to take the court. The Mavericks have been able to get to the free-throw line at a high rate this season, and their perimeter defense is one of the best in the NBA. New Orleans has not taken care of the basketball this season, and their NBA-low assist rate has only made it easier to defend. With New Orleans struggling down low offensively and the Mavs defending the perimeter as well as anyone, look for Dallas to pull away here.
Dallas -7.5
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,502.00 |
| 2 |  Pro Sports Picks | +1,421.00 |
| 3 | Brick Haus Sports | +634.00 |
| 4 |  David Delano | +492.00 |
| 5 |  Michael Briggs | +355.00 |
Total Pick for Pelicans vs Mavs
- Over 227.5 (4 Units)
This contest is a clash in styles as the Pelicans sit bottom five in terms of possessions per game, and the Mavs are sitting 6th in the NBA. That said, Dallas has played faster at home, and the Pelicans have played their fastest on the road. With key players out, that can often lend to other players becoming more assertive, which begets more of a team-wide momentum. We should expect to see such runs from both clubs here, as neither defense has been particularly strong in the open court or when it comes to defending the paint. Both offenses get to the line at a top-10 rate, and they are both hovering around the middle of the pack as far as free-throw percentage. Look for both offenses to get going here and push this total over the number.
Over 227.5
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