New Orleans Pelicans vs Indiana Pacers Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday January 16 2026
Pelicans vs Pacers picks are front and center for Friday night, and this matchup sets up as another tight game between two teams that keep landing on the low end of the scoreboard. With recent trends pointing strongly to the under, I’m breaking down the numbers and market movement to help shape tonight’s NBA picks.
TLDR - Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Pelicans +3.5
- Total Pick: Under 238
- Projected Final Score: Pacers 116, Pelicans 114
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Stats to Know and Betting Trends for Pelicans vs Pacers
- The home team has won each of the last ten meetings in this non-conference matchup.
- New Orleans earned a 128-109 home win on December 20 that stayed under the total.
- Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have stayed under the total.
- Six of the Pelicans’ last eight games have stayed under the total.
- Seven of Indiana’s last eight games have stayed under the total.
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | +3.5 (-112) | Over 238 (-112) |
| Indiana | -3.5 (-108) | Under 238 (-108) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | New Orleans | Indiana |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/15 | 05:54 PM | +2.5 (-115) | -2.5 (-105) |
| 01/15 | 11:12 PM | +3 (-115) | -3 (-105) |
| 01/16 | 00:49 AM | +3.5 (-112) | -3.5 (-108) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/15 | 05:54 PM | 237 (-115) | 237 (-105) |
| 01/16 | 00:51 AM | 238 (-112) | 238 (-108) |
New Orleans vs Indiana Game Preview and Analysis
This matchup has been extremely consistent over the last few seasons, especially when it comes to the total. Six of the last seven meetings have stayed under, and both teams are trending that way again. New Orleans just beat Brooklyn 116-113 in a game where the Pelicans never led by more than four points, while Indiana is coming off a 115-101 loss to Toronto that snapped a three-game winning streak.
The Pelicans’ issue has not been performance, but execution late. They’ve led Denver, Orlando, and the Lakers heading into the fourth quarter in recent weeks, only to fade late. That trend matters, but it also suggests these games are competitive well into the final minutes.
Indiana has been playing better basketball overall, but the Pacers have struggled to separate. Since December 8, Indiana has only won one game by more than two points. That makes it hard for me to justify laying more than a single possession here, even with the Pacers at home.
The total is where this game really stands out. Both teams are consistently playing lower-scoring games, and this series history supports another under. Unless we see an outlier shooting performance, the pace and recent trends point to another game that lands below the number.
Key Injuries and Notes NOP vs IND
- Pelicans forward Herbert Jones remains out.
- Pelicans guard Jose Alvarado remains out.
- Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin remains out.
- Pacers center Isaiah Jackson is questionable with a concussion.
Final Score Prediction
Pacers 116, Pelicans 114
ATS and Total Picks
- ATS Pick: Pelicans +3.5
- Total Pick: Under 238
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