Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Atlanta Hawks Prediction and Picks for Saturday, October 25th, 2025
Use Code SSWC The reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder (2-0) are off to an unbeaten start in 2025-26, and they’ll try to keep things rolling on Saturday when they make the trip out east to take on the Atlanta Hawks (1-1). We’ve got you covered with our Thunder vs. Hawks prediction for Saturday's contest. Tip-off is set for 7:30 ET from State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA. Read on for free NBA picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Thunder Start Season 2-0
The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off of a dominant 2024-25 campaign where they went 64-18 in the regular season and won the NBA championship. So far, Coach Mark Daigneault and his squad are perfect in 2025-26, beating the Rockets (125-124) and Pacers (141-135) to open up the season. Oklahoma City is 0-2 ATS and they’ve gone over the total in both games. As for the futures market outlook, the Thunder are priced as +260 favorites to repeat as champions.
Oklahoma City took care of Indiana in a championship rematch on Thursday, beating them 141-135 in double overtime. The Thunder (-7.5) didn’t cover. Statistically, OKC held edges in field goal rate (45.3% to 43.8%) and rebounding (60 to 55), while Indiana was better from three-point range (30.2% to 28.6%). The teams split the turnover battle (14 apiece). Individually, it was none other than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way, dropping 55 points and adding eight rebounds.
- Through a couple of games this season, the Thunder are ranked fourth in points per game (133.0)
- They’re making 44.7% of their field goals (21st) and 26.4% of their triples (27th).
- Defensively, Oklahoma City is sixth in efficiency, allowing 103.6 points per 100 possessions.
Hawks Bounce Back, Beat Magic
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks are coming off a 2024-25 season where they went 40-42, finishing in eighth place in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks went 0-2 in the play-in round and their season ended without officially making the playoffs. Coach Quin Snyder is back at the wheel this year, and his Hawks are 1-1 out of the gate. They dropped the opener at home against the Raptors (138-118), but bounced back last time out against the Magic (111-107). Atlanta is 1-1 ATS, and they’ve split their totals 1-1 to the over and under.
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The recent 111-107 win over the Magic came on Friday night, so the Hawks will be playing on a back-to-back. Statistically, Atlanta held edges in field goal rate (48.2% to 46.8%) and turnovers (16 to 21), while Orlando was better in three-point shooting (28.1% to 27.6%) and rebounding (45 to 41). Trae Young led the scoring charge for the Hawks, dropping 25 points on a 7-18 (38.9%) shooting night.
- Through a pair of games, Atlanta is scoring 118.0 points per contest (18th).
- They’re shooting 42.2% from the field (28th) and 28.6% from deep (25th).
- On the defensive side, the Hawks are allowing 120.3 points per 100 possessions (26th).
Thunder vs. Hawks Pick
Spread Pick for Thunder vs. Hawks
- Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 (-110) (5 units)
I don’t mind laying the points with the Thunder in this one. They’re clearly the better team, and if they play up to their potential, then they should take care of business comfortably.
The Hawks will be entering on the second night of a back-to-back, and we should fully expect the Thunder to exploit them with the rest advantage. Atlanta is 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing 120.3 points per 100 possessions. Last season, they were 19th in that category (112.6). With Oklahoma City’s offense being so lethal, they should have no issues stretching out a 3+ possession win against this inferior opponent.
Over/Under Pick for Thunder vs. Hawks
- Over 235.5 (-110) (5 units)
This is a pretty lofty total, but I think it’s warranted considering the scoring capabilities of the offenses and the high pace in which they play. Last season, Atlanta ranked third in pace, using 105.2 possessions per game. Oklahoma City was sixth (102.5).
Oklahoma City is coming off of a season where they ranked third in offensive efficiency, putting up 117.3 points per 100 possessions. Atlanta was a respectable 17th in the same category (111.9). With two superstar guards leading the way in this game, I think it’s best to play the over here. I can see this game landing in the 123-115 range and sneaking over the number.
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