Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers Picks and Prediction for Monday November 2 2026

Oklahoma City won 64 games last season. Great team. Nobody’s arguing about that.

But I’m looking at the Thunder right now, and they’re missing an awful lot of people. Meanwhile, Cleveland just went into Milwaukee and scored 136 points.

So tell me why I’m supposed to be excited about backing Oklahoma City on the road?

The Thunder visit the Cavaliers at Rocket Arena in Cleveland on Monday, November 2, with tipoff at 7 PM ET. This is the first of two meetings between these teams in three days. They’ll play again Wednesday in Oklahoma City. I couldn’t confirm a current sportsbook spread or total, so my side is Cleveland on the moneyline, with a target number for the total. Get ready for all the NBA action with our free NBA picks.

Oklahoma City Thunder Are Running Out of Healthy Bodies

Oklahoma City is 4-2, including 1-2 on the road. The Thunder started 4-0, but they’ve lost two straight. Dallas beat them 120-96 Wednesday, and Houston followed with a 119-98 win Saturday. That’s two losses by a combined 45 points. You can say it’s early, and you’d be right. But those aren’t close losses where a couple of missed free throws made the difference.

The Thunder have been averaging about 106.5 points while allowing 107. Their defense has generally been better than their offense, but that hasn’t helped much in the last two games. They scored 96 against Dallas and 98 against Houston. They’re shooting around 44 percent from the floor, and they haven’t been getting enough dependable offense outside their main scorer. Against Cleveland, that’s a problem. The Cavaliers have been putting up much bigger numbers.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging about 26 points a game, and he’s still capable of taking over any matchup. Isaiah Hartenstein has been giving Oklahoma City close to ten rebounds a night, which matters against Cleveland’s frontcourt. But Jalen Williams is out with a serious leg injury, Chet Holmgren is sidelined with a knee problem, and both Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace are unavailable. Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber are out as well. That’s not a normal injury list. Those are important rotation pieces, and the Thunder are having to replace too much at once.

Cleveland Cavaliers Have Been Scoring in Bunches

Cleveland is 4-2 and unbeaten in three home games. The Cavaliers lost a close one in Atlanta Thursday, then went to Milwaukee Saturday and won 136-111. That’s a pretty good way to answer a loss. Cleveland has scored at least 121 points in four of its last five games, and that’s the kind of offense I want against a short-handed opponent.

The Cavaliers are averaging about 121 points and allowing 116. They’re shooting in the mid-40s overall and moving the ball well enough to get several players involved. The defense hasn’t been perfect. Minnesota scored 125 against them, and Brooklyn put up 121. That’s why I’m not expecting Cleveland to cruise without a fight. But the Cavaliers have enough offensive options to make Oklahoma City’s depleted defense work every possession.

Donovan Mitchell has been Cleveland’s leading scorer, averaging more than 22 points a game, while James Harden has been giving the Cavaliers around six assists. Jarrett Allen has been collecting about nine rebounds per game, and his work inside could be important against an Oklahoma City team missing Holmgren. Cleveland isn’t completely healthy either. Nae’Qwan Tomlin is out with a back injury, and Jaylon Tyson has been dealing with an ankle problem. Still, the Cavaliers have much more of their main rotation available.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers Picks and Prediction

Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline

I’m taking Cleveland. Oklahoma City still has Gilgeous-Alexander, and that’s enough to make me nervous about betting against the Thunder. He can win a game almost by himself when he gets going. But there’s only so much one guy can do when the team is missing this many important players. Cleveland has scored 136, 111, 121, 127 and 125 in its last five games. Oklahoma City has scored fewer than 100 in each of its last two. That’s a pretty big difference. I think the Cavaliers have too many ways to score, especially at home.

Under 229.5 Points — Target Total

I’d look Under 229.5 if that number is available. Cleveland can put up 120 without much trouble, so this isn’t an automatic Under. But Oklahoma City’s offense has been struggling badly, and the missing players aren’t helping. The Thunder have scored 194 combined points in their last two games. If Cleveland gets into the 115-120 range and Oklahoma City stays near 105, the Under has a chance. The danger is the Cavaliers running up the score against a tired defense. Still, something like Cleveland 118-106 sounds reasonable to me.

Final Picks: Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline and Under 229.5 Points (target total)